North and SouthAnalysis

How to connect Ireland and Britain after unity? Once mothballed institution may be key

Unification could sever North’s ties to Nato and Commonwealth, but Belfast Agreement provides for maintaining British–Irish links

Micheál Martin and Northern Secretary Hilary Benn were at the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference in Dublin last December. Photograph: Stephen Collins/Collins
Micheál Martin and Northern Secretary Hilary Benn were at the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference in Dublin last December. Photograph: Stephen Collins/Collins
John Garry, Brendan O'Leary, Jamie Pow, Dawn Walsh
Mon Feb 17 2025 - 06:00

If referendums were held and majorities North and South voted for Northern Ireland to leave the UK and reunite with the rest of Ireland, what institutional links would remain, if any, between the two sovereign states, the UK and Ireland?

This question is especially important for people in the North from a Protestant and unionist background, many of whom would undoubtedly be disappointed because Irish unification must sever the union.

This severance would be accentuated not only by leaving the UK, but also by having to join an international organisation, the EU, of which Britain is no longer a member, and perhaps having to exit two organisations in which Britain is a key player. Namely, the Commonwealth and Nato.

Less controversial than the EU, the Commonwealth or Nato is the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIGC) that could possibly be continued under unification.

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The BIIGC was established as part of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement of 1998 to bring together the British and Irish governments and promote co-operation between them at all levels. It replaced but subsumed the inter-governmental conference established in 1985.

It played an important role during the implementation of the 1998 agreement, but was mothballed by the British and Irish governments between 2007 and 2018 – to encourage the Democratic Unionist Party to make devolution work in the North.

In the event of Irish unification, the future of the BIIGC is not guaranteed, but in the latest Irish Times North and South surveys there is widespread support for the organisation to continue to exist in that eventuality.

In the South, a clear majority (61 per cent) think that the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference should continue in the event of Irish unification, while 17 per cent do not think so. A further 22 per cent of people in the South are either unsure or do not know.

In the North, the pattern is almost identical. A slightly higher proportion are in favour of the BIIGC continuing in the context of a united Ireland (65 per cent), albeit with a slightly smaller percentage thinking it “definitely” should do so (23 per cent in Northern Ireland; 28 per cent in the South). By contrast, 16 per cent of Northerners think the BIIGC should not have a continued role and 19 per cent are undecided.

The views of Northern Catholics and Northern Protestants are similar on this issue. Both groups are overwhelmingly in favour of the continuation of the conference in the event of Irish unification.

Among Protestants 66 per cent are supportive and 16 per cent are opposed, resulting in net support of plus 50. And net support among Catholics is strong though slightly less at plus 43.

We see greater variation, however, when we examine the attitudes of different sets of party supporters.

Why is support for reunification rising?

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Among supporters of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Alliance in the North, approximately three-quarters think the BIIGC should continue even if Northern Ireland ceased to be part of the United Kingdom, with net support scores of plus 62 and plus 60 respectively.

It is unsurprising that SDLP voters are so supportive of the BIIGC’s long-term status – because the leaders of the party played such a prominent role in developing the multi-stranded architecture of the Good Friday institutions. Alliance voters, meanwhile, may see the continued role of BIIGC as a way of maximising stability following the transfer of sovereignty from Westminster to Ireland.

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In the Republic, Fine Gael supporters are the most enthusiastic about an ongoing role for the BIIGC, with net support for the idea at plus 54, a similar level of enthusiasm as Ulster Unionist Party supporters in the North (plus 50 net support).

Also enthusiastic, though slightly less so, are Fianna Fáil voters (net support of plus 43) and Democratic Unionist Party voters (plus 46).

Sinn Féin voters in the North and in the South are supportive of continuing the BIIGC under unification, but at lower levels than the other parties.

Net support is somewhat lower among Southern Sinn Féin supporters (57 per cent supportive) than Northern Sinn Féin supporters (63 per cent), consistent with previous ARINS/Irish Times findings that show Sinn Féin voters in the South to be less enthusiastic about possible ways of accommodating the British minority in a united Ireland than the other big parties’ supporters.

Still, despite these different levels of enthusiasm, the big story from our surveys is the very high level of support, North and South, and across different groups and parties, for continuing the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference under Irish unification.

Public opinion demonstrates a high degree of consensus and clarity on this question.

What are advocates of Irish unification to take from this evidence?

If they wish not only to win referendums, but also to put into effect a version of unification that assuages the concerns of unionists who did not vote for unification then they could highlight how links between Britain and Ireland could be plausibly facilitated, and perhaps revitalised, under unification.

There are obvious challenges in achieving British and Irish detente through mutual membership of the EU, the Commonwealth, or Nato. But, maintaining and perhaps energising an uncontroversial mechanism, the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference, is what Americans call a slam dunk.