EuropeAnalysis

Germany’s SPD has its Biden-Harris moment as Scholz’s popularity plummets

Slide in polls and Scholz-Pistorius debate have ramped up tensions for ruling party’s Bundestag members

German defence minister Boris Pistorius has significant support within the SPD to be its candidate for chancellor rather than Olaf Scholz. Germany is scheduled to hold snap elections in February. Photograph: Leonhard Simon/Getty Images
German defence minister Boris Pistorius has significant support within the SPD to be its candidate for chancellor rather than Olaf Scholz. Germany is scheduled to hold snap elections in February. Photograph: Leonhard Simon/Getty Images
Derek Scally's picture
Derek Scally in Berlin
Tue Nov 19 2024 - 09:52

Germany’s ruling Social Democratic Party is facing its own Biden-Harris moment as calls grow for its unpopular chancellor Olaf Scholz to stand aside and boost the party’s chances in February’s snap election.

With the SPD on 15 per cent in polls – 10 points short of its 2021 election result – Scholz is in 19th place in a popularity ranking of Germany’s top 20 politicians.

Topping the same poll, with 53 per cent support, is the tough-talking SPD defence minister Boris Pistorius.

Speculation about his future has followed Scholz to the G20 meeting in Brazil, where he told reporters that “the SPD and I are prepared to enter into this debate – with the aim of winning, by the way”.

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Back in Hamburg, where Scholz served as governing mayor for seven years, SPD town council member Markus Schreiber has launched an online campaign for the chancellor to stand aside.

“I’m just surprised that the SPD are running like lemmings into the abyss,” Schreiber told Der Spiegel magazine.

After three years heading an unpopular three-way coalition, the SPD is polling in third place: four points behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and three points ahead of the Greens.

Schreiber fears a Scholz-led campaign brings with it “a danger that we finish in fourth place”.

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On Monday, Bundestag member Joe Weingartner became the SPD’s first parliamentarian to back Pistorius publicly.

“He has the drive, the proximity to the people and the ability to say what needs to be done in clear German,” said Weingartner, in an evident swipe at Scholz. “And that’s what our country needs now.”

Fearing further such endorsements, SPD leaders have begun a pushback to back the chancellor.

“We want to go into this election campaign with Olaf Scholz,” said Lars Klingbeil, SPD co-leader, in a television appearance. “Everyone who bears responsibility at the top of the SPD has now made that clear.”

However, he admitted that he “would be lying” if he denied there was a debate about replacing the chancellor with the defence minister.

To date Pistorius has refused to rule out that he would like to run for chancellor. On Sunday he said Germany already had “a truly outstanding chancellor” and he was “firmly convinced that Olaf Scholz will be nominated” to run for a second term.

But a lot could happen in the eight weeks until the official nomination, scheduled for the SPD party conference on January 11th.

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A weekend poll of SPD members showed 28 per cent favouring a second Scholz-led election campaign, while 59 per cent would like to see Pistorius parachuted in.

It wouldn’t be his first time: in January 2023 Pistorius was brought into the year-old coalition as defence minister, replacing a luckless Scholz ally.

Since then Pistorius has earned the respect of the armed forces – and the wider public – amid a massive military reform and investment programme.

Alarmed by the weekend poll, and the prospect of eight more weeks of speculation, SPD leaders are now planning an event later this month to seal the Scholz candidacy.

That prompted protest from SPD youth wing leader Philip Thürmer, telling national radio that “you don’t crown yourself as chancellor candidate, it’s a decision for the party and its committees”.

The slide in polls and Scholz-Pistorius debate have ramped up tensions for SPD MPs, many facing the likelihood of not being returned to parliament. Regardless of the election result, new parliamentary rules mean the next Bundestag will shrink by 15 per cent, from its current 733 seats to 630.