There are many reasons to feel a sense of dread as November 3rd approaches. The bar has been set so low for Donald Trump, his behaviour so outrageous, his lies so numerous, his fighting style so dirty, his rhetoric so inflammatory, that a candidate of his kind becomes almost impossible to fight on any normal plain. It’s 2016 all over again.
Trump has managed to create a sense of disarray so acute, and position himself as a target that moves so erratically and so frantically, that very little within the maelstrom of his orbit can be dented with any reasonable consequence. What could possibly hurt Trump to the point where the damage would actually matter when he appears so impervious to the kinds of controversies, allegations of corruption, lies and chaos, a fraction of which would end another politician’s career?
Considering the stakes are so high, the Democrats simply have to get it right. But it doesn’t look like they will. The dull dread has begun to take hold. They’re going to pick Joe Biden, aren’t they?
For the Democrats electability means reverting to type: white, male, old, establishment
The strongest narrative that has emerged in Biden’s favour is the myth of electability. It’s bizarre to be talking about electability being rooted in a set of reliable rules in an American context considering Trump is their president. Most people did not seriously believe Trump could be elected. Before him, many questioned Obama’s electability. For the Democrats electability means reverting to type: white, male, old, establishment. Yet we know that it’s the unexpected candidate that so often cuts through, the candidate offering something different, the candidate with a unique story to tell, the candidate with a grassroots movement, the candidate who inspires those who are jaded with the status quo. In a speech in Vermont, Bernie Sanders said, “You cannot beat Trump with the same-old, same-old kind of politics”, and he is correct.
Poor candidate
Biden is a poor candidate. His messaging is uninspiring. His performances in debates have been terrible. At a time when the only energy being injected into the Democratic Party is coming from young candidates with grassroots campaigning power, particularly women of colour, they’re gravitating towards an elderly white male candidate who already held the office of vice-president.
The Democratic Party is falling into the same patterns that created a context where they convinced themselves Hillary Clinton was a good idea. Like Clinton, Biden has already had his shot. Like Clinton, he doesn’t want to rock the boat. Like Clinton, he has baggage. But at least Clinton’s candidacy stood for a broader idea: the idea of the first female president. What does Biden have going for him? A campaign cannot just be about “beating Trump”. It goes without saying that anyone running against Trump is setting out to beat him. But a candidate needs to reach beyond that. What does Biden stand for? What are his new ideas? What is his vision for the US? Who does he inspire?
Trump's narrative about Biden – that he is old, senile and useless, and part of the swamp that needs to be drained – is powerful
But beating Trump is all the Democrats are talking about. They are repeating the same mistakes of 2016, in which they talk more about Trump than they do about their own ideas, thus ensuring all of the discourse and coverage is Trump-related, emboldening the incumbent even further, dividing the nation further, embedding the “us versus them” narrative that worked so well in Trump’s favour further. Trump’s own narrative about Biden – primarily that he is old, senile and useless, and part of the swamp that needs to be drained – is powerful. What’s also incredibly powerful for Trump is how Biden’s son is tied to the Ukrainian issue that led to Trump’s impeachment, a process he managed to brush off as if it were a momentarily irritating fruit fly.
Sanders jettisoned
Having jettisoned some decent candidates, the best of whom was probably Elizabeth Warren, and many terrible ones, including Michael Bloomberg and his $500 million ego trip, it is bizarre that with the fate of their nation at stake, Biden is seemingly the one with momentum. Sanders is an infinitely better choice.
Maybe Biden can beat Trump, but the Democrats are elevating a candidate who is going to work against that ambition. Strategic or not, Trump already used the idiosyncrasies of the electoral college to beat a status quo candidate in Clinton. The idea of then choosing another status quo candidate in the hope that the result will be different is a kind of madness. Voters who went for Obama and then flipped to Trump showed that in both cases they were willing to vote against the status quo. Where is the sentiment that they will revert to Biden? Because he’s old and white?
Pretending that this is a normal situation where a 'normal' candidate can win is preposterous
The worry that Sanders securing the nomination would fragment the Democratic Party shows that establishment Democrats care more about preserving the centrist status quo of the party than affecting positive change in the US. It does seem that the Democrats would prefer to play safe and lose than do something radical to win. Recent events in American politics show there are no rules. Pretending that this is a normal situation where a “normal” candidate can win is preposterous. Electability is not a precursory sentiment. Electability is proven when a person is elected.