There is a theme emerging from Taoiseach Micheál Martin's latest pronouncements. He was "surprised" at the call by Catholic bishops for an easing of Covid restrictions on Masses and funerals. Before that he was "disappointed" by issues with the vaccine rollout. A week earlier it was the British government and its unilateral action on the Northern Ireland protocol that "disappointed" him.
His last televised address a month ago was a clarion call for us all to join him in this state of tongue-clicking, eye-narrowing, deep-sighing disenchantment. We were, he told us, “all completely fed up” and “frustrated”.
And if we weren’t it was time to get with the programme because there were at least nine more weeks of sitting on the sofa feeling sad to go.
Does anybody want a leader who casts themselves as a passive observer of events beyond their control – not angry, just perpetually disappointed?
We won’t find out until next week which restrictions we can expect not to be eased on April 5th, although the steady leaching away of hope has already started. On Friday the first of the usual dreary leaks flagged that the 5km rule – surely the most pointlessly frustrating of all restrictions – might not be lifted.
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"Senior sources" were busy expressing "pessimism". Martin is also gearing us up for a fresh round of his preferred emotional state. "There is no point in opening up and having to close again," he told RTÉ recently.
It is true that we need to be cautious, and proper that his tone should reflect it. Nobody wants a leader vomiting out giddy soundbites divorced from the harsh realities of life in a pandemic. Well, maybe those who voted for Boris Johnson do.
But does anybody want a leader who casts themselves as a passive observer of events beyond their control – not angry, just perpetually disappointed?
Being Taoiseach amidst the perfect storm of the most serious public health crisis in the history of the State, a grim economic outlook, a shadow pandemic of mental health and social problems, while leading a dejected population through one of the longest and harshest lockdowns anywhere, is a gig nobody would envy.
What we need is not just an exit plan from the current lockdown, but a longer-term exit plan from the republic of Nphet
And that's even before you get to all the other things he has to contend with – the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) calling the shots, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar snapping at his heels and Mary Lou McDonald's constant demands that he very clearly state something or other that he would very clearly prefer not to.
But over a year into a crisis of this magnitude the public doesn't want a leader it has sympathy for. It doesn't want a Taoiseach sitting like Bernie Sanders in his fold-up chair, casting a disappointed eye over proceedings.
From next week the Taoiseach will tell us what comes after the current phase of restrictions ends on April 5th. It would be refreshing to hear less about what is expected from us, and more about what we can expect from the Government.
What we need is not just an exit plan from the current lockdown, but a longer-term exit plan from the republic of Nphet.
Nphet’s brief is to dispense public health advice. For the past year that has involved getting the Covid-19 caseload down low enough to protect the health service and save lives, something it has done well under exceptionally tough circumstances. It is not the team’s job to worry about anything outside of this remit.
That’s why, for example, we are currently in the farcical situation in which non-essential retail is closed, except for the many kinds of non-essential retail carried out in the homeware sections of chain stores.
Likewise, click-and-collect is closed, except for the places where it isn’t.
If this goes on much longer what will be left of our towns and cities?
Meanwhile, younger teenagers are spending up to eight hours a day on Zoom, slowly disengaging from their education and friendships, and denied even the relief of team sports. Never mind our towns – if this goes on what kind of state will they be in?
The question isn't why compliance is fraying now, but how we managed to keep it together this long
Those things are not Nphet’s concern. But they are the Government’s.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s real test of leadership comes now as cases plateau at about the 500 mark. No amount of paternalistic pronouncements about holding firm or staying the course seem capable of pushing them down further. The frustrating thing is that many outbreaks still aren’t being investigated to discover the source.
But for all the gloom things are much less bleak than they were when we entered this lockdown. The majority of people getting sick now are young adults. The numbers in intensive care were down 11 per cent this week. There were 19 open outbreaks in nursing homes this month, compared to 60 in February, and 139 in January. This month 14 healthcare workers fell ill, compared to 1,000 in January.
On St Patrick's Day Ireland had the third lowest rate of Covid-19 in Europe. And yet, according to the University of Oxford's Covid-19 government response tracker, we are in one of the harshest, longest lockdowns anywhere in the world. Only Eritrea has had stringent restrictions since January, with Venezuela, Italy and Georgia just behind.
The question isn’t why compliance is fraying now, but how we managed to keep it together this long.
There is reason for optimism, and people's behaviour will reflect that, even if the Government doesn't
Whether the Government acknowledges it or not, the nightly numbers will become less important as more vulnerable people are vaccinated.
Israel, which has immunised over half its nine million population, still has active transmission, but there is a 50 per cent weekly decline in cases. A scientist at the Weizmann Institute in Rehovot, Eran Segal, reported this week that there are 86 per cent fewer cases in people aged 60 and older than there were in mid-January, and 91 per cent fewer deaths.
There is reason for optimism, and people’s behaviour will reflect that, even if the Government doesn’t.
We don’t need any more disappointment. What we need is a realistic appraisal of where we are, and a clear path out of this.