Main Points
- Voters in the United States are electing members of Congress, which is made up of two parts – the House of Representatives and the Senate.
- Early wins are trending towards the Democrats
- Trump bracing for ‘a really bad night’, say White House officials
- Democrat Jon Ossoff wins re-election in Georgia senate race and Democrat Roy Cooper flips North Carolina from Republicans
- The outcome will determine which political party – Donald Trump’s Republicans or opposition Democrats – controls Congress and how easily the US president can advance his agenda
Key Reads
- What are the US midterms and what do they mean for Donald Trump?
- US midterm election night: When Irish viewers can expect key calls
- Keith Duggan: Trump proclaims ‘golden age’ while US midterm polls are flashing historical defeats
- Analysis: The US midterms show a blue surge. Can we trust them?
Democrats gain momentum in battle for control of Congress
Democrats have secured a series of early victories and strong showings in states and districts where Republicans have won by large margins for years.
As of 2.30am Irish time, Democrats flipped the US Senate seat in North Carolina and retained control of seats in Georgia and New Hampshire, according to projections
Florida has provided an fascinating insight into the Democrats’ resilience: two Democratic incumbents retained their House seats even after their districts were redrawn to favour Republicans.
In addition, Democrats flipped their first House seat of the night in western North Carolina.
It is early and analysts caution about a “blue mirage”. But there are hopeful signs for Demcrats that a politcal earthquake may be on the way.
In Texas and South Carolina, Democrats have fielded strong and well-funded senate candidates against Republicans considered their party’s weakest nominees. In each, the Democratic candidates are posting margins unthinkable for their party in counties that have reported the vast majorities of their votes.
Trump, meanwhile, is watching the election results from the White House and posting criticism of the Fox News coverage on his social media site. He celebrated a Republican victory in Guam but has yet to speak at length about results in the 50 states.
Full results won’t be known until well into the morning -- and possibly not for days, especially if many of the races are close.
Trump braces for ‘bad night’
Donald Trump is preparing to dampen expectations for the Republicans, White House officials have told NBC News.
Officials are trying to lower expectations about the party’s performance nationwide, based on early results. One official said the president was bracing for the idea it “might be a really bad night” for his party.
First ‘flip’ for Democrats as Roy Cooper wins senate seat in North Carolina
Democrat Roy Cooper has won election to the US senate representing North Carolina, defeating Republican Michael Whatley.
Cooper’s victory gives Democrats a key pickup in their quest to wrest senate control from Republicans.
The seat was open because Republican senator Thom Tillis opted not to seek another term.
Cooper is a former governor and state attorney general.
Whatley is a former state and national Republican Party chairman who ran with US president Donald Trump’s support.
Is Florida a sign of things to come for Trump?
Florida’s 4th congressional district was a race on few people’s radar; it was rated as likely Republican by the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
But, with over 90 per cent of the vote counted, the race is unexpectedly close with the Democratic candidate, LaShonda “LJ” Holloway leading by one percentage point.
Many other Democrats in the state look set to retain seats, or are projected to win marginal contests, despite redistricting efforts.
Democrat Jon Ossoff projected to win re-election in Georgia senate race
Democrat Jon Ossoff is projected to win re-election in the Georgia Senate race, according to NBC News.
Georgia was rated by analysts as a Democrat-leaning state, so it’s not a big surprise. It was one of the few states where Democrats had a money advantage in the final stretch and had moved off the board for Republicans.
Our Washington Correspondent Keith Duggan recently profiled Ossoff, an emerging Democrat star who has become a chief thorn in Trump’s side.
Polls close in six states
Polls have closed in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
These are the first states to finish voting. The next batch of poll closures will take place at 12:30am Irish time in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.
Meanwhile, some of the TV networks are making their first projections.
NBC projects Democrat Mark Warner will defeat Republican Bert Mizusawa to win another term in the Virginia senate race. Virginia is a solidly Democratic state, so no big surprise there.
NBC also projects Republican politician Hal Rogers will win re-election in Kentucky’s 5th congressional district, rated as a solidly Republican district by analysts.
Meanwhile, Democrat Morgan McGarvey is projected to win Kentucky’s 3rd congressional district, rated as solidly Democratic district by analysts.
These results offer an early snapshot of the contests shaping the battle for control of Congress.
What does turnout typically look like in US midterm elections?
Turnout tends to be lower in US midterm elections than in the presidential elections.
Turnout in the last two midterms was 52 per cent in 2022 and 53 per cent in 2018, according to the US Census Bureau.
But with the presidency on the ballot, 65 per cent of eligible voters turned out in 2024 and 67 per cent in 2020.
Latest opinion polls indicate that Democratic voters are more likely to turn out than Republicans this year.
Election analysts have cautioned that such Democratic constituencies as young, Black and Hispanic voters have historically turned out at lower rates in midterm elections.
And surveys show persistent skepticism among these groups towards both parties, especially over the cost of living.
If turnout among those groups falls short of expectations, Democrats could underperform on election day.
Was Trump’s election day announcement on cutting aid to Israel a sign of desperation?
Earlier on Tuesday, US president Trump made a surprise election day announcement on US aid to Israel, a topic that has been raised in some midterm campaigns.
He said he had made a deal with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu that Washington would stop $4 billion in funding to Israel after the end of this year, though it would still sell Israel weapons.
The announcement comes as US public support for Israel has fallen, particularly among Democrats, since Israel’s harsh response in Gaza to a deadly Hamas-led cross-border attack in October 2023.
Trump did not say why he chose to announce the deal on Tuesday, but a number of candidates critical of Israel won Democratic primaries over the past year, and even moderate candidates have been increasingly willing to challenge longtime US support.
In a key battleground race, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is seeking to represent Michigan in the US senate. El-Sayed, who would become the first Muslim to serve as a US senator, has opposed unconditional military aid to Israel.
First polls close in Indiana and Kentucky
The first polls in the 2026 US midterms have closed now in Indiana and Kentucky.
Kentucky’s 6th district, an open seat rated by many as a toss-up, is being treated by analysts as an early test of whether a large Democratic wave is building.
At midnight, polls in Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina and most of Florida will close. Virginia’s 2nd district will be the first genuine swing seat to report.
My colleague Hugh Linehan has provided this guide on when to expect the key calls.
How will the TV networks project results?
Most TV networks and web outlets rely on two providers for vote counts: the Associated Press (AP) or election data firm Decision Desk HQ.
Some news outlets like Fox News and CBS News make their own projections based on the AP vote count, exit polls, early-vote totals and their own statistical modeling.
The first projections will start soon after polls begin to close, first with Indiana and Kentucky at 11pm Irish time.
Then, polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia at midnight Irish time.
When making calls, the AP says it uses vote totals and estimates how many votes remain uncounted based on past voting patterns and early-vote data.
It calls a race only when the trailing candidate cannot catch up.
Decision Desk HQ collects vote counts from official state sources. The firm says it uses statistical analysis, modeling and expert review to project election winners.
Most voters ‘angry’ or ‘dissatisfied’ with direction of US
Voters are in the mood for change, according to the AP Voter Poll, which found that roughly three-quarters of voters say they feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the country today.
The poll finds most appear to blame the Trump administration for high costs. About six in 10 say higher-than-usual prices are “more because of Trump’s policies” rather than “more because of factors outside Trump’s control.”
Additionally, about 70 per cent of voters want the US Congress to provide more checks and balances on the presidency.
The AP poll suggests most are deeply unhappy with Trump, with roughly six in 10 saying they disapprove of how he’s handling the presidency.
About four in 10 say the economy is the most important issue facing the country, while three in 10 say the most important issue is democracy, according to the poll, well above the number who said the same about crime, health care and immigration.
US midterm polls show a blue surge. Can we trust them?
Democrats are leading in all key states that will decide senate control, according to the latest polls.
However, surveys have underestimated Trump and Republican support before.
There’s precedent in the Trump era for polls to overestimate Democrats, and it’s reasonable to wonder whether the polls might be overestimating Democratic strength yet again. Statistically, Republicans more likely not to respond to polls, which introduces the ever-present risk of a polling misfire.
The political analyst Nate Cohn says the latest New York Times/Siena polls have been weighted to take account of this.
In addition, he argues Democrats lead by enough that they could win the Senate even if the polls underestimate Republicans by as much as they did in 2016 or 2020.
Minnesota voters remember US citizens killed by federal immigration officials
Minnesota voters left “I Voted” stickers on memorial sites for Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good, the two US citizens killed by federal immigration officials earlier this year.
Pretti, a 37-year-old intensive care unit nurse at the Veterans Affairs medical center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and Good, a writer and mother of three, were killed during a large-scale immigration enforcement operation in the Minneapolis region in January.
Republican voters outnumber Democrats in all votes cast
In voting on Tuesday, Republican voters outnumbered Democrats by almost half, 856,000 to 445,000, according to Florida Vote Tracker.
In all votes cast, Republicans led 3.06 million to 2.5 million, with another 1.6 million independent or no party affiliated votes cast.
The figures, of course, reflect only the number of returned votes by affiliation so far, not who voters actually voted for.
Technical issues reported in several areas
In New York state, Westchester county executive Kenneth Jenkins told a news conference that voting machines have been unable to scan as many as 250,000 ballots in 332 polling locations across more than 40 of the county’s municipalities.
Jenkins stressed that people will still be able to vote, and would be directed to cast their vote on emergency ballots.
Technical issues were reported across several Mississippi counties.
People have experienced issues with voting, according to Mississippi Voters Action Fund, which supports voting in the state.
Election officials in Florida’s Broward county, the largest Democratic party stronghold in the state, say they have resolved issues with voting machines in a number of precincts that prevented early election day voters from casting their ballots.
Joe Scott, the county’s supervisor of elections, said in a statement that the technical problems, which became evident as soon as polling opened, were quickly ironed out.
Voter turnout surges past 2022 levels
Voter turnout has surged in the lead up to this year’s midterm election, with the number of early ballots cast significantly outstripping the totals from the 2022 midterm.
By the afternoon, Florida’s Division of Elections reported more than 1,860,000 votes had been cast on election day.
Georgia’s secretary of state Brad Raffensperger said 775,000 votes had been cast, with an expected total turnout of 1.4 million votes by the close of polling.
Guam elects Republican governor in first unofficial results
The first election results of the 2026 midterms have come in from Guam, the Pacific island territory.
The unofficial results published by the Guam Election Commission show that Republican candidate Vicente Ada (also known as Tony) was elected as governor of Guam.
Voters opted to send Democratic candidate Alicia Anne Garrido Limtiaco to Washington as the delegate to congress.
President Donald Trump took to his personal social media platform to remark on the results, which he considered a strong showing for the Republicans.
“Guam, which has always been considered strongly Democrat, just had an early call for a REPUBLICAN victory in the top spot, Governor — Congratulations to Tony Ada.
“Also, the Republicans have the majority in the State Senate. Wow, hopefully that’s an indication for things to come.”
Officials in some states report strong turnout in opening hours
Voter turnout has surged in the lead up to this year’s midterm election, with the number of early ballots cast significantly outstripping the totals from the 2022 midterm.
Elections workers across the country were expecting that trend to continue into election day.
Officials in states including North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan reported strong turnout in the opening hours of voting.
When can Irish viewers expect the key calls?
With Ireland five hours ahead of the east coast, the first US midterm polls will close at 11pm our time. But that’s only half the story, writes Hugh Linehan.
Florida and North Carolina usually count most of their vote within hours. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can’t process postal ballots until polling day, and California accepts postal ballots arriving up to a week late.
A candidate leading at 2am may be trailing by breakfast, and that is normal rather than sinister. If Democrats run ahead of their polls in Virginia, South Carolina and Ohio before 1am, Republicans face a very bad night.
If they don’t, the US Senate may come down to Maine and Alaska, where ranked choice voting slows everything down, and we might not have a definitive result for days or even weeks.
Read the full article here.
US to cut $4 billion in aid to Israel this year, says Trump
President Donald Trump said he had an agreement with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to cut off $4 billion in annual US aid.
“Bibi Netanyahu and I have made a deal,” Trump said in an interview on Tuesday on Fox News.
“We give Israel $4 billion a year and we made a deal months ago that we’re stopping — and they’re fine with it.”
“They’ve become a very successful country. They don’t need it. And we won’t be paying anymore,” he added.
Astronauts For America write open letter to US voters
Astronauts For America, an alliance of more than 100 former Nasa explorers, has written an election day open letter to US voters reminding them of the importance of their vote in defending constitutional principles against threats to democracy.
“Federal authority is not a license for any president or federal agency to take over state election administration,” the letter, also signed by ther non-partisan, pro-democracy groups National Security Leaders for America and Leadership Now, said.
“Regardless of political party or personal beliefs, every American should be able to trust that elections are conducted according to the law, every lawful vote is counted, and the results are determined through established legal procedures - not political pressure or the arbitrary exercise of power.”
The letter is a thinly-veiled attack on Donald Trump’s efforts to interfere in election machinery, such as his failed attempts to segregate ballots in California and block certification in the Alaska US senate race. - Guardian
Republicans return more ballots than Democrats in Florida so far
Florida election officials released early voting figures on Tuesday showing registered Republicans in the state returned over 250,000 more ballots than Democrats - 1.49 million to 1.21m.
Gas climbs to election day high of over $4 in bad timing for Republicans
Americans driving to the polls will pay gas prices averaging over $4 a gallon for the first time on record on an election day, the latest milestone in an energy crisis that has taken center stage in the US midterms.
US gas prices averaged $4.13 a gallon as of 10am EST, according to GasBuddy, a fuel savings app.
That’s the most expensive price ever recorded on November 3rd of any year. It’s also more expensive than any prior election day, including 2022, the year US gas prices set an all-time record, according to Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis.
The prices today are below the highs set this year of over $4.56 a gallon in May, and they’re down from a national average near $4.50 in late September, according to AAA.
But the $4 price tag has never stuck on gas station marquees so late into the year, the result of snarled global energy shipments and a refining crisis spurred by the US-Iran war, continued Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and limited exports from China.
In the hours before polls opened, federal judges issued a series of rulings restricting the Trump administration’s unprecedented efforts to pressure state election officials over alleged noncitizen voting.
The administration’s legal losing streak continued last night. In Washington, one federal judge blocked the administration from demanding officials in California not count any ballots received from people on a list of alleged noncitizens, while another judge prevented the administration from sending such lists to officials in any state.
In San Francisco, the 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower court order for the administration to stop threatening election officials with prosecution if they did not comply with its demands over alleged noncitizen voters.
Those rulings all came after the US Supreme Court swiftly rejected the administration’s request that it intervene in a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to order California election officials not to count any mail ballots received from more than 20,000 people it says may be noncitizens.
The people have the power, says Kamala Harris.
Now, for the sake of balance, we should probably post something from a Republican perspective and who better to choose but the man who leads that party?
The eight Senate seats to watch tonight
While there are hundreds of races reaching their climax this evening, the outcome may well depend on just eight Senate seats.
Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat, is running against Trump-backed Republican Mike Rogers, in Michigan while in Maine, Republican incumbent Susan Collins is battlind hard for her seat.
In Alaska, former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola will hope to take Republican Dan Sullivan’s seat. In Ohio Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, is hoping to return to the Senate having lost his seat in 2024 while in Texas, James Talarico, is trying to flip a red seat blue with a triumph over Ken Paxton.
Kansas is closer than might have been expected with Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton ahead in the polls against Republican incumbent Roger Marshall while in South Carolina, Darline Graham, the sister of late Senator Lindsey Graham, is running for a full term with polls showing a potentially close contest between her and Democratic nominee Annie Andrews.
And then there is Iowa: With Republican Senator Joni Ernst having vacated her seat, her party’s nominee, congresswoman Ashley Hinson, the GOP in nominee, is running to replace her. She’s up against Democrat Josh Turek, a state lawmaker, in a toss-up contest.
America decides... but when will we know what it’s saying?
While Irish polling booths close at 10pm on the day of voting with the full results not becoming clear for days, they do things differently in the US and many of the polls wil be closing at 6pm local time – or 11pm Irish time - and by early tomorrow morning we should have a good idea what happened. Hugh Linehan has a good breakdown of what we can expect and when we can expect it.
Justice department deploying 1,000 election monitors and observers to all 50 states
The US justice department has said it is deploying 1,000 election monitors and observers to all 50 states in what it called the largest election day monitoring effort in history.
A department statement identified which jurisdictions within the states would receive monitors and observers, and said priorities include areas with a history of voter access issues and places with competitive races that could be targets of voter intimidation.
The Trump administration has taken an increasingly aggressive approach to election oversight, pressing states for voter-registration data and arguing that stricter measures are needed to ensure public confidence in the vote. Critics view the moves as federal overreach.
Odds on Democrats to come out on top
Many of the polls are pointing to heavy losses for the Republicans, but what about the betting markets?
There has been a staggering $1.48 billion (€1.32 billion) wagered on the midterms on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
The platforms rose to prominence in 2024 when they bucked traditional opinion polls in signalling that Donald Trump would win the presidency, and have since amassed a global following among media outlets and investors.
On Monday, prediction market prices aggregated by analytics firm BetInt implied Democrats had a 95 per cent chance of taking the House of Representatives and a 76 cent chance of taking the Senate.
What is occupying the minds of US voters as they go to the polls?
The rising cost of living will be top of mind for Americans but it is not the only thing concerning them, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that was conducted between last Thursday and Monday.
THE COST OF LIVING
Some 48 per cent of registered voters in the poll say the cost of living is the top issue for deciding how they will vote, compared with 26 per cent who say democratic norms and 13 per cent who point to immigration. US fuel prices have surged since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran in February.
DONALD TRUMP
Trump has urged supporters to pretend he is on the ballot in an effort to energize his Republican Party. The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 48 per cent of people who planned to vote – or already had done so – said they thought of their ballots as a vote against Trump, compared with 25 per cent who said they were voting for him. Some 25 per cent said Trump was not a factor in their vote.
IRAN
Trump has argued that war was necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Some 25 per cent of voters think military action has been worth the cost, and 55 per cent say it has not been worth it with 18 per cent unsure.
ELECTION INTEGRITY
Voters overall trust the US electoral process, with 77 per cent saying they are confident their ballots will be counted but 45 per cent saying they think voter fraud is a widespread problem. Trump has falsely claimed that massive numbers of non-citizens vote illegally and election officials worry the administration could disrupt the election or certification of results it views unfavourably. The White House says its goal is to safeguard election integrity and voting security.
HOUSEHOLD FINANCES
All told 49 per cent of Americans think their household finances have gotten worse since January 2025, when Trump returned to power, compared with 13 per cent who said their finances have gotten better and 37 per cent who say things are about the same. Trump campaigned ahead of the November 2024 presidential election with a promise to turbocharge the economy, but his presidential approval has fallen in recent months to the lowest levels of his political career, including among Hispanic Americans who swung in his direction in 2024. The latest poll showed 54 per cent of Hispanics said their household finances have suffered, while 10 per cent said they had improved.
TRANSGENDER SPORTS
Some 38 per cent of voters ahead of the election said keeping transgender girls and women out of women’s sports was a very important issue or the most important issue, compared to 25 per cent who said that about protecting the rights of transgender people.
What is on the table in today’s election?
So, with all the talk of midterms and a blue wave and a Democratic sweep seeing power seep away from Trump’s White House, it might be worth recapping just what is up for grabs today.
First things first. Congress has two chambers, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The lower chamber, the House of Representatives, has 435 voting seats, each representing a district of roughly similar size. There are elections for each of these seats every two years.
The House has several exclusive powers, such as the power to initiate revenue bills, impeach federal officials and elect the president in the case of an electoral college tie.
The upper chamber, the Senate, has 100 members, who sit for six-year terms. A third of the seats come up for election in each two-year cycle. Each state has two senators, regardless of its population.
Most legislation needs to pass both chambers to become law, but the Senate has some important other functions, notably approving senior presidential appointments, for instance to the supreme court.
In most states, the candidate with the most votes on election day wins the seat.
However, Georgia and Louisiana require the winning candidate to garner 50 per cent of votes cast; if no one does, they hold a runoff election between the top two candidates.
Maine and Alaska use ranked-choice voting as opposed to the first past the post voting system in congressional elections.
Florida and Ohio are having ‘special elections’ for the Senate because the previous holders of their seats – Marco Rubio and JD Vance – resigned to join the executive branch following the 2024 presidential election.
And then there are governors.
They are elected by direct vote in their states. The candidate with the highest number of votes is declared the winner.
In every state, the executive branch is led by a governor. They serve for four years in office, with the exception of Vermont and New Hampshire where tenures are two years long.
Governors are responsible for implementing state laws, and have a range of powers available to them such as executive orders, executive budgets and legislative proposals and vetoes.
US voters go to the polls in election which could weaken Trump’s hold on power
Americans are heading to the polls today in US midterm elections widely seen as a referendum on Donald Trump’s second presidency and a chance for opponents to rein in his power.
The party holding the White House typically loses congressional seats at midterm elections and Democrats are hoping the president’s nose-diving popularity can be exploited.
Meanwhile, the US department of justice in California has charged six more people with alleged voter fraud crimes, an escalation of the administration’s campaign against election integrity.
However, in a blow to Trump, the supreme court has ruled against attempts to force California election officials to segregate and not count ballots from people the department claims are non-citizens.
