India has edged closer to taking military action against nuclear rival Pakistan in response to last week’s terror attack in the disputed Kashmir region, which killed 26 tourists.
Fears of an outbreak of hostilities grew after India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, gave the country’s military approval to “determine the mode, targets and timing” of its response to the killings.
Official sources said that at a late-night meeting on Tuesday with India’s defence chief of staff and other senior Indian security officials, the prime minister had granted “complete freedom” to the military in retaliating for the April 22nd terror strike, for which his government blamed Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate.
Mr Modi also iterated India’s desire to deal a “crushing blow” to Islamist terrorism, which India says has been emanating for decades from Pakistan, the sources said.
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Pakistan has denied involvement in the attack in Pahalgam, a popular destination in the scenic, mountainous region of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. A militant group called the Resistance Front initially claimed responsibility for the attack but later retracted the claim, saying it had been the victim of a “cyber intrusion”.
India’s defence minister Rajnath Singh said that not only those responsible for perpetrating the attack but its planners, whom he claimed were in the Pakistani military, would be dealt with “appropriately”. A big country such as India could never be intimidated by such terror activities, he said.
Military and security analysts in Delhi say they anticipate a “limited” armed conflict with Pakistan and have cautioned against the risk of it spiralling into a wider engagement. The lack of bilateral communication channels and mutual trust have been identified as factors exacerbating the risks, given the nuclear capabilities of the two countries.
“The numerous declarations by India’s top leadership indicated an intent to seek punitive justice for the terror victims from not only its perpetrators but also its conspirators from Pakistan’s military and security establishment,” said defence analyst Brig Rahul Bhonsle of the Delhi-based Security Risks consultancy group. The “punishment” India intended to unleash upon both would be “harsh and unforgiving”, he warned.
Citing “credible intelligence”, Pakistan’s information minister, Attaullah Tarar, said on Wednesday that India was planning military action against Pakistan within 24 to 36 hours, following what he said were “baseless and concocted allegations” of Islamabad’s involvement in the Kashmir terror strike.
Pakistan’s defence minister, Khwaja Muhammad Asif, said his country’s military was on “high alert” to give a “befitting response” to India’s planned retaliation if its territorial integrity was infringed.
He told ANI television news that Pakistan would consider using its nuclear option only if it faced a “direct existential threat”, and called for both sides to exercise restraint.
Mr Asif’s perspective aligns with Pakistan’s 27-year-old nuclear doctrine, which reserves the right to employ its nuclear assets if its existence is endangered.
India’s nuclear doctrine is centred around a posture of credible minimum deterrence and no-first-use policy of atomic weapons. But, if attacked with nuclear weapons, it threatens a “punitive retaliatory strike”.
Since the April 22nd attack the two countries’ armies have been exchanging small-arms and even artillery fire at many places along their disputed 740km-long de facto border in Jammu and Kashmir, known as the line of control, ending the ceasefire that had prevailed here since 2021.
Leave for all military personnel in both countries is understood to have been suspended and the rival armed forces have been conducting ‘war exercises’.
The digital landscape in both countries has also become a veritable battleground, disseminating nationalistic rhetoric and incendiary narratives, which have been inflaming both public opinion and governmental responses.
India has banned 16 Pakistani YouTube channels, with more than 63 million combined subscribers, claiming they were distorting events surrounding last week’s attack.
