World record holder Gete Wami of Ethiopia is predicting one of the fastest times of the season when the elite of middle distance running assemble for the final of the Olympic 5,000 metres in Sydney (10.55 a.m. Irish time).

If she's right, Sonia O'Sullivan will have to get close to her career best figures of 14 minutes 41.40 seconds, recorded in Berlin five years ago, to crown an outstanding career with the prize she covets most.

That is the measure of the task awaiting the Irish champion in a race which may hold the nation captive when the starter's gun sends the 15 runners on their way for one of the showpieces of the Olympic track programme.

In a season in which she hasn't got remotely close to her career high, the question awaiting answer is whether O'Sullivan's deliberately low-key build-up in the summer can deliver her to the start line in the kind of condition which will bridge a gap of 37 seconds with Wami and 27 in the case of the world champion, Gabriela Szabo of Romania.

In the modern jargon of sport, that is a huge "ask" of a gifted athlete whose record at this level is littered with mishaps. And yet, the hope persists that after the most circuitous of routes she can, at 30, finally arrive in the promised land.

Back in Atlanta four years ago, in days of turmoil which have never been fully explained, O'Sullivan fell precipitously from her rating as the world's number one to one of the most forlorn athletes in the Games.

Experiences like that can scar even the most resilient, but here she appears to have done all the right things, keeping a low profile and generally staying out of contact with the media. The word from the camp is that she is quietly confident but ultimately her fate, like that of so many others, is likely to be determined by the tactics. In a truly-run race, with a lot of pace in the early stages, the fear is that O'Sullivan could be burned out before they get to the business end of things. According to her advisers she's prepared to do whatever it takes to stay close to the front.

"She's already run the race a 100 times in her head but the bottom line is that she's determined to be competitive every metre of the way," said her partner, Nick Bideau.

If, on the other hand, it builds to a finish of the big kickers, then she could have a real chance of seeing off her rivals over the last 200 metres.

One has to say that with three Ethiopians in the field, that second scenario is the less likely. Running as a team, they will be prepared to sacrifice one athlete, probably Worknese Kidane, to wind up the pace for Wami and Ayelech Worku.

That's a fear based on bitter experience for many European athletes. By throwing in a couple of big laps and then chopping the pace, African runners have frequently demoralised their opposition to the point of capitulation.

Now with three Ethiopians and two Kenyans, Lydia Cheromei and Vivian Cheruiyot all sensing the opportunity of an African grand slam, the tactical element of the race promises to be absorbing.

Nor should one overlook the strength of the European challenge. Headed by double world champion Gabriela Szabo of Romania, it also includes the emerging Russian Olga Yegorova, whose rate of progress this season has been quite staggering.

Running in a Grand Prix race in Stockholm, Yegorova improved by some 39 seconds on her previous best when seeing off Wami and others with a time of 14.42.91. That was a performance to impress even the most sceptical and, suddenly, a new title challenger had been born.

In four years, Szabo has lost just one 5,000-metres race - to O'Sullivan in the European Championships at Budapest in 1998. Otherwise, it's been a tale of unbroken triumph for the little Romanian, who was named Woman Athlete of the Year after the second of her World Championship successes at Seville last year.

Judged on some of her performances during the summer, she has since gone off the boil but then, at a time when form can be deceptive in the approach to the biggest event on the calendar, that may have been part of the psychological warfare.

Almost certainly, however, it is the late inclusion of Wami in the field, after earlier statements that she was concentrating on the 10,000 metres, which dominates the pre-race discussion.

After finishing third behind O'Sullivan in the heats, the Ethiopian indicated that the final would be a lot different. Now she has reinforced that belief by stating that the new champion may have to run well inside 15 minutes.

Speaking through an interpreter, she said: "I think it will be a fast race. Many of the athletes have the ability to win but they will need to be under 15 minutes."

That's something that O'Sullivan hasn't achieved in two years. And yet, the authority with which she won her heat on Friday suggests that, providing she survives the middle stages of the race in good shape, she can still have a big input to make over the last 400 metres.