It is the last day of the junior infants term of the 34th Dáil and the report card on the pupils is out.
“Muddling along, must do better” seems to be the general verdict of those who responded to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll just before the politicians break up for the summer recess.
It has not been a stellar start for the Government or the Opposition since last November’s general election.
It took almost two months for a Coalition to be formed and then there was the interminable row over Dáil speaking rights, the delayed establishment of Oireachtas committees and an underwhelming amount of legislation passed.
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The housing crisis remains as apparently intractable as ever with a new plan to tackle it not expected until September.
And the internal Government row over university student contribution fees may be a taste of things to come as preparations gear up for what will be a tricky budget amid all of the economic uncertainty over a possible full-scale trade war between the European Union and the United States.
But it appears the Opposition is failing to capitalise on the situation as well.
In our lead story Political Editor Pat Leahy sets out the poll results that shows how support for the Government parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is holding steady while Sinn Féin has fallen since the last poll in the series in April.
Support for Independents rise
There is a substantial increase in support for Independents since the last poll in April, the figures show.
The state of the parties, when undecided voters and those unlikely to vote are excluded, is: Fianna Fáil on 22 per cent (no change), Sinn Féin on 22 per cent (down four), and Fine Gael on 17 per cent (up one).
Among the smaller parties, the Social Democrats party is at 6 per cent (down one), Labour is on 4 per cent (down one), the Green Party is at 3 per cent (no change), People Before Profit-Solidarity is on 2 per cent (down one) and Aontú is on 2 per cent (up one). Independents/others are at 22 per cent (up five), a figure that includes the Independent Ireland party.
Undecided voters – who are excluded from the above figures – are at 25 per cent, a sharp increase of six points since April.
Satisfaction with the Government is steady, at 36 per cent, while Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin remains the most popular party leader, with a 44 per cent satisfaction rating, down by one point.
However, Tánaiste and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris slips down by four points to 38 per cent. He is just in advance of Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, who sees a marginal one-point decline to 36 per cent.
Leahy writes that despite the polling numbers holding up for the Government parties, the public has little sense that they are getting to grips with the State’s problems.
In his analysis, Ipsos B&A president Damian Loscher highlights how just 14 per cent of voters feel the Government is making progress in tackling the problems facing the country, a disappointing result for members of the Coalition. Voters are more likely to hold the belief that either progress has stalled (30 per cent) or the situation has got worse (53 per cent).
Leahy sums up the principal messages of the poll in his take on it, including how voters dissatisfied with the Government are gravitating not towards the parties of the left, but to Independents or they don’t know how they would vote.
He says the poll is disappointing for Sinn Féin given the finding that most people don’t believe the Coalition is getting to grips with the country’s problems.
Noting the considerable speculation about the possibility of Mary Lou McDonald running for the presidency, Leahy writes it would be a huge move for the party, but today’s poll will do nothing to dampen the speculation.
Best Reads
On all things presidential, Independent TD Catherine Connolly officially launched her bid for Áras an Uachtaráin on Wednesday.
Jack Horgan-Jones reports on how a group of Irish-Syrian activists has written to the Labour Party asking it not to back Connolly’s bid for the presidency. The group’s criticisms stem from a trip Connolly took to Syria while dictator Bashar al-Assad was still in power alongside three other TDs and the argument is that the trip “provided legitimacy to the Assad regime and its narrative”. She has said she met no government officials “nor did I ever utter one word of support for Assad”.
Miriam Lord tipped along to Connolly’s very ‘soft launch’ event. She writes that “one suspects that a lack of the usual razzmatazz may be the hallmark of this particular bid for the Áras”.
Elsewhere, the Taoiseach has rejected a claim by the US ambassador to Israel that Ireland is suffering from “diplomatic intoxication” in progressing something as “stupid” as the Occupied Territories Bill. Ellen Coyne and Ronan McGreevy report.
On the Opinion pages, Newton Emerson writes about a tricky question posed to Mary Lou McDonald by Richard Madeley (yes he of Richard and Judy fame) on Good Morning Britain during the week.
Inside Politics Podcast: Why has Donald Trump threatened the EU again and will Labour support Connolly’s bid for the presidency?
Playbook
Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers is due to take Parliamentary Questions from 8.47am.
Next up is Minister for Education Helen McEntee at 10.23am.
Leaders’ Questions is at noon.
Government Business in the afternoon (from 1.52pm) includes debates on the Proceeds of Crime Bill and another piece of legislation on the Central Bank.
TDs have an opportunity to ask questions on Topical Issues from 9pm.
There is a debate on a Sinn Féin Bill on the promotion of restorative justice from 10pm.
The Dáil is due to adjourn at midnight for the summer recess with TDs set to return to Leinster House in mid-September.
Government Business in the Seanad is a Committee Stage debate on the Defamation (amendment) Bill 2024.
The Seanad adjourns at 1.45pm.
The Health Information and Quality Authority (Hiqa) is before the Public Accounts Committee to be quizzed on its financial statements and the nursing home support scheme from 10.30am.
The Committee on Enterprise will debate copyright legislation from 9.30am.
The Committee on Key Issues Affecting the Traveller Community will look at participation in education from 1pm.
The full Dáil, Seanad and committees schedule can be found here.
