The new leader of Fine Gael – whose identity we will know for sure next week – will have three key political challenges facing him. Two are relatively straightforward matters of judgment. The third will define whether our politics will change for the better, and will probably decide his success or otherwise as party leader and taoiseach.
The new Fine Gael leader will be declared next Friday, amid manly handshakes, delirium among his supporters and pledges of party unity. No votes are yet cast but unless there is a big change – possible but unlikely – Leo Varadkar will be the winner.
Varadkar commands a huge lead this weekend because he has shown himself better at politics than Simon Coveney. The findings of the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll indicated a slight preference for Coveney among both general voters and the Fine Gael variety – but not by enough of a margin to overturn the apple tart, as Bertie might say.
The early rush to him in the first days of the campaign was not an accident but the result of using his advantages with tactical adroitness and political ruthlessness. He has prepared carefully and cleverly; those votes are nailed down. His policy positions were designed to appeal to the Fine Gael members who will vote in the election rather than the country at large (time for that later).
The highest compliment a mature political analyst of my acquaintance can pay anyone is “he shares my own prejudices”. Varadkar has made it clear to the Fine Gael organisation that he shares their prejudices.
Skilled and able
Varadkar is a student of politics as well as a practitioner of it, and he is clearly a skilled and able politician. He will need to be for the job that seemingly awaits him. It is unlike any other he has done.
The new Fine Gael leader will face the immediate question of his relationship with Fianna Fáil. Prior to the Enda Kenny goodbye tour, relations between the two big parties had deteriorated to their worst level since the confidence-and-supply agreement was put together last year. Proximity and mutual dependence do not seem to have engendered trust; rather the opposite. Unless the relationship is relaunched on the basis of trust and co-operation, the Government will not last the summer. Varadkar was privately – and sometimes not so privately – sceptical about the confidence-and-supply agreement last year. There has not been a great deal of evidence of a Pauline conversion since.
From this choice about Fianna Fáil arises the second political challenge for the new leader: the timing of the next election. Talk to any Fine Gaeler in Government or thereabouts and they will acknowledge the importance of the choice of the date. Summer or autumn? Before or after the budget? This year or next?
Fine Gael is haunted by the decision not to call the last election in November 2015. Perhaps it wouldn't have been better. But it couldn't have been worse.
Micheál Martin knows that he has one more shot at winning an election (if he’s not in government after the next election, he’s finished as party leader) and so he will be even more wary than usual in his dealings with the new leader, especially if it is Varadkar.
He will not, I expect, consent to relaunching the Government unless he has concrete guarantees that Fine Gael will not collapse the scrum in the middle of a Varadkar honeymoon, or before the budget. Those guarantees will have to be clear and public. There are choices for the new Fine Gael leader for sure, but also for the Fianna Fáil leader. Tricky, when their rivalry will probably define politics for the coming period.
Asked about Varadkar’s attitude to Fianna Fáil, his supporters point to his recent performance last month when standing in at Leaders’ Questions in the Dáil: that’s the one at which he berated Fianna Fáil for having abandoned the legacy of Lemass by its approach to water charges. So hold on to your hats.
All this will be dissected ad nauseam over the coming weeks. But the new leader of Fine Gael will also have a more profound challenge facing him.
Disrepute
The Government is stuck – devoid of purpose, forward momentum, energy, will and capacity. More than that, politics itself has fallen into disrepute with too many people. Their expectation of Government and of politics is on the floor. The great challenge for the next taoiseach is to renew not just this Government, but the idea that government itself can make a benign difference in people’s lives.
From a certain perspective, everyone’s loving the Fine Gael leadership contest. Daily events, policy launches, head-counting, loyalty, ambition, betrayal. Two polite young men (well, youngish), becoming less polite as the contest goes on. Nightly debates. What’s not to like?
Actually, the public is a lot less enthralled with the mechanics of the Fine Gael electoral college system. They are much more likely to be focused on what’s next.
I expect dramatic gestures in the early days of a new administration – a wide-ranging reshuffle, perhaps a new Garda Commissioner and other visible signs of change and vigour.
But what is more important is that the new leader and taoiseach sets out a programme for the country, not just for the government. When he becomes taoiseach the new Fine Gael leader will have to pivot from party to country.
He must also display a vision for the future of the country, an ability to plan for the future, financial discipline, a willingness to endure short-term political heat for long-term civic gain, the bravery to face down vested interests and the ability to speak for the nation.
The political skills and tactical ability that get him there are necessary, but they are not sufficient.