The Carlow Kilkenny by-election, which arose following Phil Hogan’s appointment as a EU commissioner, delivered few real surprises. Bobby Aylward’s election again confirms that political dynasties matter, and shows that Fianna Fáil can still command voter loyalty. The party has secured its first by election success in many years. Fianna Fáil needed an electoral success , both to boost party morale and to enable its beleaguered leader, Micheál Martin silence his party critics. This result now allows Mr Martin to claim - and with some credibility - that his party is well placed to challenge for a seat in every one of the 43 constituencies in the general election.
For Fine Gael, as a government party, retaining a seat in a by- election contest always presents a stiff challenge. In difficult economic times, voters often taken the opportunity to punish an unpopular government. The sharp reduction in the Fine Gael vote this time - having taken three seats in 2011 - will raise worries about the party holding two seats at the general election. And likewise Labour will be disappointed with its performance in a constituency that has long been a Labour stronghold.
Sinn Féin, however, can be satisfied with its election performance. The increase in its share of vote leaves it well placed to take a seat in a general election within the next nine months. Renua, in winning close to 10 per cent of the vote on its first electoral outing, has performed impressively. But whether the party can now replicate that performance elsewhere may well depend on its ability both to attract strong candidates and to finance a general election campaign. Renua has shown with this result that it is a transfer friendly party, and is able to attract cross party transfers, which in a general election may well determine whether the party can survive as a serious political force.