This week was a microcosm of what Irish politics is going to look like for the foreseeable future: dominated by conflict abroad and housing at home. It’s a combination that will make things difficult for the Government.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s schedule over recent days encapsulated this dual aspect neatly: he arrived home from Washington, was subjected to a monstering in the Dáil over housing, and then flew to Brussels where EU leaders conferred on the rearming of Europe.
The latter is perceived by Martin’s fellow heads of member state governments as an existential issue, dwarfing all their domestic concerns. Indeed, most of them know there will be domestic political costs for this abrupt shift in European policy, as resources that voters might prefer to be spent on social programmes, welfare, housing and so on, will instead go on tanks, fighter jets and missile defences. But they think they must go ahead anyway.
In Ireland, this hasn’t really begun to sink in yet. But it will. Martin must have a hunch that his party’s fate might depend more on housing at home than on the defence of Europe.
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The Taoiseach and his crew returned across the Atlantic delighted that they had survived the White House crucible without a Zelenskiy-type immolation. But although one of the defining characteristics of Donald Trump is his day-to-day unpredictability, that was always unlikely. What was entirely possible, however, was that Trump might take against Martin personally, that the US president might focus his dislike of the EU on the Taoiseach, or that Martin would stumble into difficulty over Ireland’s stance on Israel-Palestine, or the trade deficit, or whatever.
[ Micheál Martin’s White House bout with Donald Trump: How did the Taoiseach fare?Opens in new window ]
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The list of potential tripwires to disaster was lengthy and, to Martin’s officials, terrifying. I have never seen such obvious stress as I saw on the faces of Geraldine Byrne-Nason, the Irish Ambassador in Washington; John Callinan, Martin’s most senior civil servant; and Deirdre Gillane, his chief of staff, as they sat on the Oval Office couch praying for the ordeal to end. I have never seen such relief afterwards.
Martin himself worked hard to conceal his apprehension and carried the whole thing off with some dash, avoiding any trouble and reinforcing the strength of the Irish-American bond which has delivered so much politically and economically for this country. If that was at the cost of letting Trump dominate proceedings and say whatever he liked – then looking a bit supine beside him was a worthwhile price to pay, Martin reasoned. He was cock-a-hoop afterwards.
Though I suspect middle Ireland soundly backed the Taoiseach’s approach, there are also many who have a legitimate quarrel with this. Few of them, however, bother to evaluate, or even acknowledge, that there may be very significant costs for the country if you go into the Oval Office and have a row with Trump. We may not like it, but this is the world we now live in. If Martin had done that, the criticism at home for speaking truth to power or whatever you want to call it would have been much louder.
Martin’s chuckle at Trump’s response to a question about housing was a mistake. Mary Lou McDonald seized on it and gave the Taoiseach a proper going-over in the Dáil on Wednesday. Accusing Martin of “sniggering” at Trump’s dismissal of the housing crisis in Ireland, the Taoiseach told her she lacked the courage to go to the US and make the case for Ireland.
“It does not take courage to snigger at people,” McDonald shot back. “That is the action of an obsequious coward. It is a cowardly act to snigger at the suffering and hardship of people back home when you feel you are at a safe distance to do so.” It looked good on social media channels.
McDonald presumably knows that Martin wasn’t sniggering at people who can’t find somewhere to live, but she has him bang to rights on the dodgy figures for housing completions that he and his Government allies were using for the second half of last year. Right up to the election they were citing projections of 40,000 houses to be completed by the end of the year. The real figure when the CSO counted them was just more than 30,000 – but the election was over by then.
The exchanges were a reminder of the enduring centrality of the housing issue. But Government policy stutters on – despite growing evidence that it will produce nothing near the 50,000-60,000 houses a year needed, and which the Government parties promised during the election. It is becoming increasingly clear that some drastic policy changes will be needed soon, or the Government will be doomed to fail on housing. And I suspect there would be a decisive political price for that at the next election.
Hightailing it to Brussels on Thursday, Martin entered a very different world. With a direct military threat on its eastern borders, and the US security guarantee no longer reliable, Europe is rearming as quickly as it can. That will involve many hundreds of billions of euro spent on arms, defence technology and military recruitment in the coming decade.
Would it be better not to have to do this? Of course. Is it necessary? Ask the Ukrainians. Ask the Poles and the Baltics. Is it any of Ireland’s business? It is if we’re part of the European Union. Will the Government face significant domestic opposition for spending money on guns not butter? Certainly.
Ireland is fortunate that it is currently in such a strong financial position that it can meet any reasonable international and national spending requirements. Depending on the unfolding EU-US trade war, that position might not last though. Inevitably, uncomfortable choices of all kinds loom for the Government.
