We talk a lot about party preference in Ireland, but less about the lack of it. There remains a political vacuum; a huge floating vote that can – and does – swing any which way. So where will it land?
For more than 13 years, wild fluctuations have both illustrated and emerged from this vacuum. In 2011 Fianna Fáil lost 57 seats, Fine Gael gained 25, Labour gained 17 and Sinn Féin went from a marginal presence in the Dáil to winning 10 new seats and having 14 TDs. In 2016, Fine Gael lost 26 seats, Fianna Fáil gained 24, Sinn Féin gained nine and Labour lost 30. The Social Democrats in parliament was born with three seats.
Within half a decade, the political landscape changed again. Fianna Fáil lost six seats, Fine Gael lost 15, Sinn Féin gained 14, the Green Party gained nine and the Social Democrats grew to six TDs. While everyone talks about the implosion and “rebuild” of Fianna Fáil and the collapse of Labour over this era, ultimately the party consistently sliding post-2011 is Fine Gael. Across three election cycles it went from 76 seats to 50 to 35 and now 32.
The current narrative – that Sinn Féin’s surge ebbed since the pandemic, and Fine Gael is back in the game – is bolstered by the polls. But another reality is that Fine Gael is in something of a crisis in the run-up to the general election. Eighteen – more than half of its sitting TDs – aren’t running. These include many big hitters with serious name-recognition.
Fine Gael says it will run between 75 and 80 candidates. Is this smart, or a vote-splitter? Is the party brand really strong enough for a bonanza of first-time TDs? Have enough people heard of Emma Blain, Grace Boland, William Aird, Nikki Bradley, Brian Brennan, Phyll Bugler, Cathal Burke, Paula Butterly, Vicki Casserly, Keira Keogh? The mass resignation and retirement of Fine Gael TDs is a vacuum within a vacuum.
In 2020, Sinn Féin’s brand was strong enough to elect a swathe of unknowns. The party hasn’t done enough to embed recognition of many then-newbies in the consciousness of country and constituency. Sinn Féin remains entrenched in insularity. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil think nothing of reaching out to potential celebrity candidates because they know name-recognition matters. I’m not advocating for a superficial and cynical approach, but a version of that for Sinn Féin could have been recruiting candidates with credibility outside of its own orbit, piquing the interest of the electorate, and representing “change”.
The electorate offered Sinn Féin an opportunity to own the political vacuum in 2020. A huge number of people gave the party a mandate. It didn’t solidify it. The broadness of a vote should have led to a broadness in representation. Instead, Sinn Féin took that broadness and translated it as idir dhá stól on policy positions. This led to vagueness and flip-flopping, generating suspicions among voters around where the party stood on various issues. If you want to represent a potential new era of political power and change, you have to lead, not guess.
Yet the contraction in Sinn Féin’s popularity has as much to do with the re-emergence of this political vacuum as anything else. There are vast swathes of Irish voters who express no affiliation to any political party. In 2020 that articulated itself as giving something new a go. Where will it land this time?
The energy that fuelled the Sinn Féin surge has dissipated. But it hasn’t gone somewhere else identifiable with any real enthusiasm. The vibes are low. We are in an era of voter disgruntlement. This is good news for one cohort of politicians: independents. My own hunch is that the vacuum – this fracturing in party support, voter unpredictability (and late engagement) – will bolster the “someone else” factor. Votes could scatter in a pattern that at first glance may not actually make much sense. But it’s about the vacuum.
Tonally, Fine Gael is going with a campaign of optimism and positivity. Social media ads show Simon Harris shaking hands to the tune of Pharrell Williams’s decade-old hit, Happy. This is bold messaging in the context of many unhappy voters. Fine Gael is asking voters to believe in and endorse something that for those who are struggling is a delusion: everything is great, and aren’t you just delighted?
Last week, a succession of stories – CSO figures on the Government being well behind on its own housing targets; data showing individuals and families bought 846 new apartments in Ireland last year, whereas investment funds nabbed 6,203; and Government skipping over much-needed legislation to crack down on Airbnbs and short-term lets – all point to housing once again becoming the dominant election issue.
Government parties cannot convincingly defend their record on housing. You cannot deny the lived experience of renters, homeless families, housing-crisis emigrants, desperate prospective buyers and adults in their childhood bedrooms. Are voters really going to dance to Fine Gael’s tune of “Happy”? Attempting to fill a vacuum with something vacuous is not a serious pitch.