Last week's Tory party conference, and British prime minister David Cameron's speech, were all about putting the party on a war footing for next May's general election. Above all, about convincing the troops the battle is winnable. Outright victory in the dysfunctional electoral system would require at least 40 per cent of the vote, while Ukip's rise means neither Tories nor Labour may actually get more than a third of the vote.
Labour currently stands some six points ahead in the “who-would-you-vote-for”polls – seen as a 60-seat advantage – and Ukip is capable of inflicting unquantifiable damage to the Tory vote in vulnerable seats, but Cameron and his Australian election guru Lynton Crosby believe the opposition is critically hobbled by an unconvincing, bumbling – even downright odd – leader and putative prime-minister-in-waiting in Ed Miliband. Labour is some 25 points behind when voters are asked about economic competence despite the reality that Tory promises to banish austerity and curb the deficit have failed to materialise.
Cameron and Crosby are convinced that Labour's traditional claim to ownership of the NHS as an issue can be neutralised. Hence a pledge to ringfence health spending in real terms – not sufficient to prevent cutbacks – and which he spiced up for the middle classes with a promise to cut taxes by £7 billion. With chancellor George Osborne at the same time promising some £25 billion in spending cuts to get rid of the deficit by 2018, the Tory package is going to mean extraordinary cuts in non-health spending departments. (No mention of what will happen to Tory favourites defence and police). Those affected will probably not vote Tory anyway, while those not affected will see in such measures evidence of robust fiscal responsibility. Or so the argument goes. Post-Scottish referendum, the Tories also believe they can capitalise on Labour opposition to the simplistic "English votes for English laws".
On Europe Cameron largely held his ground at the conference, refusing both a big set-piece debate that would have put on open display all the divisions, or to be drawn by Eurosceptics into declaring that he would campaign for withdrawal if he did not get his way in the renegotiation process. That, despite a day-one backbench defection to Ukip, and mayor of London Boris Johnson’s willingness to fan flames with an insistence that the UK would thrive outside the EU. But Cameron again hinted at repudiation of the European Convention on Human Rights, and promised that he would “not take no for an answer” on curbing EU free movement of labour. Both crowd-pleasing promises – and that is what matters – but both may prove difficult hostages to fortune down the road.