Brexit: Chances of trade deal between UK and EU ‘50-50’, says Taoiseach

The chances of European Union and United Kingdom negotiators reaching a post-Brexit trade deal is "50-50", Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said.

Speaking as the EU and UK attempt to salvage a trade deal in last-ditch talks, Mr Martin offered a downbeat assessment on the prospect of a deal being struck to avoid a costly no-deal exit at the end of the year.

Negotiators are trying to hammer out an agreement on EU fishing rights in British waters, a “level playing field” for fair competition and governance rules on enforcing a trade deal.

“My gut instinct is that it is 50-50 right now and I don’t think one can be overly optimistic about a resolution emerging,” Mr Martin told RTÉ.

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“My sense is having spoken to some of the key principles here that this is a very challenging issue to resolve particularly around the level playing field.”

Earlier, British negotiators arrived in Brussels on Sunday for a last-ditch attempt to strike a deal and avert a chaotic parting of ways at the end of the year.

British prime minister Boris Johnson and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen spoke on Saturday and instructed their teams to resume talks after they were paused a day earlier due to an impasse over three key issues.

In a joint statement after their call, Mr Johnson and Ms von der Leyen said that no agreement was feasible if significant differences on fishing, fair competition and ways to solve future disputes were not resolved.

“This is the final throw of the dice,” said a British source close to the negotiations.

Since Britain formally left the EU on January 31st negotiators have missed a series of deadlines to reach before a status quo transition period ends on December 31st

Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost told reporters after arriving in Brussels on Sunday that his team would be working very hard to try to get a deal.

EU negotiator Michel Barnier had been expected to brief member states’ ambassadors to Brussels on the state of play on Sunday but that meeting was postponed to Monday morning.

Long-term disruption

Experts have warned that a no-deal scenario would cause huge long-term disruption to the British economy.

Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney said any EU-UK trade deal would not be ratified if the UK proceeds with two pieces of legislation that breach the Northern Ireland Brexit deal.

As British and EU negotiators meet to try to hammer out a last-ditch deal, Mr Coveney said he wanted a deal this week to provide certainty but he raised concerns about the UK government’s plan to legislate with two bills that would breach the withdrawal agreement brokered in January.

“I don’t see how, even if there is a compromise agreed this week, that that agreement would be ratified if the UK, in two pieces of domestic legislation, is breaching the withdrawal agreement, which isn’t even 12 months old,” Mr Coveney told RTÉ’s This Week radio programme.

Mr Coveney said that a deal was “more likely than not” because the consequences of a no deal are “so significant” for the UK and Ireland, but also for other EU countries, “so everybody wants a deal.”

“What we are at now is the very final attempts to close that out. Anybody who has been involved in these negotiations won’t have been surprised that it wasn’t possible for the two negotiating teams to finalise the deal in a way that was smooth and managed and predictable,” he said

A majority of Mr Johnson’s ministers would be willing to back him if he decides a deal is not in British interests, the Times newspaper reported, saying 13 cabinet ministers had confirmed they would do so.

British farming minister George Eustice said the country had done a huge amount of preparation for a no-deal and was ready to go through with such a scenario.

“We’ll continue to work on these negotiations until there’s no point in doing so any further,” he told Sky News.

Contingency plans

Minister for Further Education Simon Harris said there is a deal to be done on Brexit if there is a willingness on both sides.

Speaking on RTÉ’s The Week in Politics he said it would be a crucial week in talks in Brussels.

“Whilst I don’t think we can be in any way complacent I think there is a deal there to be done if there is a willingness on both sides to do a deal.”

He said “this will be a very intense and very busy week on two key issues - fair competition and fisheries”.

It was about the logical fair rationale that if Britain wants access to lots of EU markets it is entirely appropriate that the EU would have access to British fishing waters whilst respecting British sovereignty”.

The Observer newspaper reported on Sunday that, under UK government contingency plans, tens of millions of Covid-19 vaccine doses could be flown to Britain from Belgium by military aircraft to avoid delays at ports caused by Brexit.

The British government declined to comment on the report, but Mr Eustice said the end of the UK’s transition period would not disrupt vaccine supplies.

“A huge amount of work has gone on to maintain the flow of goods at the border . . . and we’ve also got contingency plans in place, including a government-procured ferry that’s on standby and of course the option, should it be needed, to use air freight too,” he said. – Additional reporting Reuters