Sinn Féin gathers momentum after shaky start

Dublin Central will be one of the most closely watched constituencies in the country on count day, because of the presence of…

Dublin Central will be one of the most closely watched constituencies in the country on count day, because of the presence of Sinn Féin MEP Mary Lou McDonald.

Following a shaky start, Sinn Féin has put a major effort behind McDonald, following fears that she would not be able to build on the 2002 performance of Cllr Nicky Kehoe.

Back then, the Cabra-based Kehoe, who served time in Portlaoise for IRA offences, came within 57 votes of denying Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's running mate, Dermot Fitzpatrick.

Unimpressed by the idea of life as a TD and less than keen to run again, Kehoe was annoyed by the party's decision to "parachute" McDonald into the constituency, without consultation.

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Since then, Kehoe has been visible in campaign photographs alongside McDonald, though less so in reality, while Sinn Féin's other councillor, Christy Burke, has been more supportive.

Given that McDonald is now favoured to take a seat, questions still remain over whether it will be at the expense of Fianna Fáil, Labour's Joe Costello or outgoing Independent TD Tony Gregory.

Fianna Fáil is running Cyprian Brady and the retiring Dermot Fitzpatrick's daughter, Cllr Mary Fitzpatrick, alongside Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.

In 2002, Ahern had over 4,000 votes to transfer - and the 2,000-plus second preferences that went to Fitzpatrick helped bring him home.

Indeed, Fitzpatrick, a doctor in Cabra, was one of only two candidates in 2002 anywhere in the country to be elected having won less than a half a quota on the first count. This time, Ahern, who has never been one to share his first preference vote, cannot depend on his transfers helping his running mates.

Instead, he must work to increase their first round showing. So far, he has shown little sign of doing that, though he may opt in the final days of the campaign to encourage his most loyal supporters in Drumcondra to back Brady.

The late Jim Mitchell was one of Fine Gael's highest profile losses in the 2002 meltdown and Cllr Paschal Donohoe is striving to retrieve the seat, with some signs of success.

The positions after the first couple of counts achieved by Cllr Donohoe and Labour's Joe Costello will decide their respective fates, since the transfers of one could easily elect the other.

If there is a significant swing to Fine Gael in Dublin, as some polls suggest, then Cllr Donohoe must appear in the shake-up for one of the final two seats on offer. If not, his transfers could decide Costello's fate.

In 2002, the Labour candidate received nearly 3,000 preferences on the elimination of Mitchell, and a significant bloc once Green Party candidate Tommy Simpson went out.

If he is not already elected by then, Costello could then expect a battle with Independent TD Tony Gregory and the Greens' Patricia McKenna.

Before the election, the Greens were confident that McKenna, a former Dublin MEP, would win, though her vote may be affected by the difficulty of getting her message out.

The area's population has risen by over 6,000 in the last five years, even though 1,000 Islandbridge residents who were registered in Central in 2002 have since been transferred to Dublin South Central in the last constituency review.

Many of the new arrivals are young singles with no previous ties to the area, and no known loyalties to candidates. Fianna Fáil faces a major task to hold on to its second seat.

Mark Hennessy

Mark Hennessy

Mark Hennessy is Ireland and Britain Editor with The Irish Times