State of the parties: Irish Times poll reveals a volatile electorate

Public satisfaction with this Government has sunk to a record low and Fine Gael trails both Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil in terms of popularity. This redrawing of the political landscape has, according to the latest Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll, been caused by a surge in support for Independents and Others who now enjoy a ten-point lead over Sinn Féin, their nearest challenger. The volatility among the disillusioned electorate is plain to see.

Distrust of the established parties was the explanation offered by most respondents for the growth in support for Independents and smaller parties. On that basis, the major parties and Fine Gael in particular have a great deal of work to do in advance of the general election. Within the Coalition, a drop of five points in support for the Fine Gael party was accompanied by a seven point fall in Taoiseach Enda Kenny's satisfaction rating. The Labour Party fared worse, dropping three points to six per cent, while Joan Burton's satisfaction rating fell by 12 points.

Sinn Féin emerged with the highest level of party support, at 22 per cent, but that had fallen by two points since a pre-Budget poll, last October. Satisfaction with Gerry Adams’ leadership dropped by nine points. In contrast, Fianna Fáil gained a single point to 21 per cent while satisfaction with Micheál Martin’s performance declined by a similar amount. In spite of extensive voter volatility, there was little obvious support for a change of leadership within any of the parties.

The introduction of water charges and unrealised public expectations appear to have been the main drivers of these changes. Income tax cuts and a withdrawal of water charges were key pre-Budget demands. But the reductions offered by Government failed to accord with the good news message of its ministers that austerity was, effectively, at an end. For so many there is no feel-good factor yet.

For families on low incomes, water charges represented a threat of impending hardship. Support for the Government among this cohort was particularly depressed; only ten per cent, compared to 24 per cent among high-income earners. Similarly, there was a radical change in farmer allegiances arising from hardship within the beef and sheep sectors. A year ago, Fine Gael led Fianna Fáil by a margin of 23 points among all farmers; now it trails it by four.

The uneven nature of the economic recovery and its impact on different social groups is clearly reflected in this poll. Jobs are being created and some people have more money to spend. But the climb out of the fiscal abyss is vertiginous. Government ministers miscalculated badly by suggesting they had brought years of austerity to an end. Hardship is deeply embedded in communities; the State spends more than it raises in taxes and bromides are no solution.