Figures showing that global emissions of carbon dioxide from the energy sector have stalled are most welcome, and a quite a surprise, given recent trends. Ultimately they give no cause for complacency as climate scientists warn it is not enough to stabilise carbon dioxide emissions.
This is because of the scale and impact of temperature rises in recent decades and the ability of CO2 to accumulate in the atmosphere for long periods. Yet the figures suggest changed energy generation and consumption practices offer real hope of tangible benefits for the Earth and all who is live on it.
The latest International Energy Agency data show 2014 was the first time in 40 years in which there was a halt or reduction in emissions of the greenhouse gas that was not tied to an economic downturn. The agency noted there had only been three times in which emissions had stood still or fallen, since it started collecting data. All three cases, in the early 1980s, 1992 and 2009, were associated global economic decline. However, last year the global economy expanded by 3 per cent.
Changed use of energy sources in major industrial states, notably in China, has contributed to this improved scenario while some more wealthy countries have started to “decouple” economic expansion from emission increases. Primarily, this is as a result of greater investment in renewable energy and adoption of more rigorous emission standards, as has happened in the motor industry.
Friends of the Earth Ireland director Oisín Coghlan said the figures show that policies that reduced emissions did work. He agreed they had been accurately described as “not so much a step in the right direction, as an end to stepping in the wrong direction”.
Global emissions would have to reduce every year for the next 40 years if climate change was to be contained. “At best, this is a turning point, but only if we have much increased determination to take action. There’s no room for complacency at all,” he added. If emissions started to go down next year then we would be potentially talking about a real turning point. It depends on the choices we make, as individuals and as countries, whether or not this is the start of a trend “or whether it’s a pause before we gorge again on carbon.”
The European Commission had recently said Ireland was "off track" by aiming to reduce emissions by only 3 per cent by 2020 when it should be targeting a 20 per cent reduction. The absence of detailed Government plan as the months tick after four years in office is simply unacceptable. It suggests commitment not at the scale urgently needed.
The path to Paris in December, when world leaders are due to agree a global climate change pact, none the less has been made a little easier with the latest IEA findings. The demands of emissions reduction are considerable, but the prospect of a positive return sooner than may have been anticipated up to now will inject greater enthusiasm into the collective process.