Sinn Féin:Sinn Féin's fortunes have risen and dipped frequently over the life of the outgoing Dáil, partly because of its own actions but more often because of the actions of the IRA.
In the months after the 2002 general election, Sinn Féin was convinced that the five seats gained were but the start of a relentless rise for the party in the Republic.
Then, Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin had been returned for Cavan/Monaghan, Aengus Ó Snodaigh for Dublin South Central and Sean Crowe for Dublin South West.
In Munster, former gunrunner and alleged member of the IRA Army Council Martin Ferris put an end to the political career of the former Labour leader Dick Spring. In Louth, another former IRA prisoner, Arthur Morgan, was elected.
However, its performance should have been much better, given that it had won 6.5 per cent of the first preference vote. The Greens won six seats with just 3.8 per cent of first preferences.
The difference, as always, was transfers. Today, party strategists have encouraged canvassers to seek the No 2s, 3s and 4s. Only time will tell if voters will heed their calls.
Following the 2002 result, senior party figures privately insisted that they would win 16 seats in the next Dáil, and the optimism remained strong up to, and through, the local elections.
In the latter poll, Sinn Féin won 54 seats in local authorities throughout the State, took 8 per cent of the first preference and set serious alarm bells off among other parties. Traditionally, Sinn Féin voters are "plumpers" - who give a No 1 to the party and put nothing else on the ballot paper.
The Northern Bank robbery in December 2004 and, more importantly, the brutal slaying of Robert McCartney brought Sinn Féin's relationship with the IRA into stark relief for many.
The party's handling of both issues did not help. Frustrated, exposed and panic-stricken, senior Sinn Féin figures struck out in all directions, offering abuse and little else.
In early spring 2005, the situation was further worsened when Sinn Féin's two-faced attitude to the victims of violence was brutally exposed in the case of Belfast widow Jean McConville.
Put under pressure by the Progressive Democrats' Michael McDowell, the party's Mitchel McLaughlin argued that her killing had been wrong, but not a crime. McDowell piled on pressure by alleging that Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and Martin Ferris were all still members of the IRA's Army Council.
While Sinn Féin did not handle matters well, the temperature went out of the situation as time passed and the perpetrators of the bank robbery and McCartney's killing remained free.
The decommissioning - finally - of IRA weapons in September 2005 has been backed up by positive reports from the International Monitoring Commission.
Sinn Féin was rocked to its core by the disclosure in December 2005 that senior party member Denis Donaldson had been a British agent for 20 years. Struggling to handle the crisis, party chiefs first tried to argue that Donaldson was unimportant (wrong), and that he had never been important (wrong, too).
Within months, Donaldson was dead, brutally murdered in a remote Donegal cottage.
After some rough times, the party's confidence levels have risen noticeably in recent weeks.
The imponderable now is what impact the likely establishment of a Northern Executive between Sinn Féin and the DUP will have on Southern voters.
Its existing seats appear safe. Martin Ferris's arrest for drink driving will do little to harm his chances among many rural dwellers. Mary Lou McDonald in Dublin Central is the party's big hope. Elsewhere, candidates such as David Cullinane in Waterford must not just increase first preference share, but genuinely challenges for seats.
NO OF SEATS IN OUTGOING DÁIL: 5
NATIONAL SHARE OF VOTE 2002: 6.51%
