Good news on getting a fix

Something is stirring in the world of mortgage rates and, unless you are very unlucky, it should add up to good news for you …

Something is stirring in the world of mortgage rates and, unless you are very unlucky, it should add up to good news for you and your pocket.

Signs of the movement have been appearing for a little while now, with a recent decision by the State's biggest lender, Permanent TSB, to cut some of its fixed rates, offering a clear indication that (hurrah!) the trend on interest rates could be moving down instead of up.

Stronger evidence again came earlier this week when First Active, one of a small number of lenders that are fast-gaining a reputation for innovation, said it was reducing the cost of its fixed-rate mortgages for new customers.

This left First Active's one-year fixed rate for new borrowers - the staple of the first-time buyer market - at just 2.54 per cent or, in other words, the cheapest in the market.

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This decision was, according to First Active, based on trends in the wider financial world or, more specifically, in the long-term euro interest rates that govern the fixed rates paid by Irish mortgage customers.

These long-term rates, which are also called bond yields, have begun to move lower of late, thus making it cheaper for lenders to provide mortgages to their customers.

At time of writing, First Active and Permanent TSB were the leaders in passing any of this on to their fixed customers.

But there is a sense in the market that others will follow, particularly in the crucial and highly-competitive world of one-year fixes.

The battle for first-time buyers should, if nothing else, force the issue.

The intriguing thing about all of this of course is that, less than a year ago, most Irish lenders moved to raise their fixed rates because bond yields were beginning to rise.

There was a sense at the time that the euro-zone economy was on track to improve but, now that doubts are once again growing about the scale of economic performance across the 12-state euro community, the long-term rates are falling.

The consequence for short-term rates - the ones that tend to be most closely watched by the media and are particularly relevant for variable or tracker mortgages - is that expectations of an imminent rise have now been replaced by predictions that these rates will fall too from their current historic low of 2 per cent.

Davy Stockbrokers' chief economist, Mr Robbie Kelleher, wrote earlier this week that a combination of the weak euro-zone economy and the euro's strength against other currencies could even lead to a short-term rate cut rather than a hike.

This would mean that holders of variable and tracker mortgages - the ones that guarantee to always stand within a certain margin of short-term or ECB rates - might see a decline in their monthly repayments.

Thus, regardless of what all of this might spell for the health of the euro-zone economy, it looks like there is a reasonable chance (not a guarantee - nothing is ever guaranteed in economics) that almost all interest rates will decline a little bit this year.

Rates aside, of course, would-be and existing homeowners must always make a decision on their mortgage on the basis of their personal situation.

There is no right answer to questions on which kind of product or rate to choose, but it should nonetheless help if mortgage-hunters ask themselves a few questions before taking the plunge.

If, for example, they would get stressed at the idea of their mortgage repayments varying according to the decisions of the ECB, then maybe a fixed rate might offer them some comfort.

If however they conclude that the prospect of being stuck on an expensive fixed rate while variable and tracker rates move down would make them even more stressed, then maybe a variable or tracker product would be better suited to their needs.

Mortgages, like all financial products, need to be chosen with great care, with the requirements and situation of the individual borrower always the most important factor in the decision-making process.

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey is an Assistant Business Editor at The Irish Times