There are growing fears Cop27 will have a weak outcome amid concerns over efforts to weaken commitment to the Paris Agreement temperature goal of 1.5 degrees and a lack of backing by wealthy countries for scaled-up climate finance for developing countries.
Some reports suggest negotiations due to conclude on Friday are in disarray, with talks running well behind schedule, though this is not unusual for such summits that are attended by more than 190 countries.
There are indication that a first draft of the “cover text” for the conference may be issued on Wednesday, which may give an idea of how much progress – or otherwise – has been made at the talks.
Mary Robinson, chair of the Elders group of global leaders, and Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan said on Tuesday indications on critical issues were not good – though at this stage of these climate summits, a lot of key agenda items often remain unresolved and long nights of negotiations are required, especially at political level.
Mrs Robinson said she was particularly worried by lack of progress on climate finance in spite of initial positive indications when leaders attended the first week of Cop27.
“I come in the second week after the talk, to see what’s happening, so I’m fired up. We need tangible loss and damage ... we need real money. We got a global shield [an insurance mechanism agreed by G7 countries]. That is OK but it’s not enough,” she said.
The Elders would accept if it came in the form of a finance facility, Mrs Robinson added, but in the absence of that it favoured a high-level linking across the UN; Cop27 – including the $100 billion a year promised by developed countries; and “the much bigger money in G20 world”, so far greater amounts of money could be released.
There were five excellent ways set out by a G20 advisory group on how the World Bank and the IMF could provide climate finance including loss and damage, she said. This would ensure wholesale reform of multilateral development banks and the capital adequacy framework. They could release far more sums of money by interpreting their mandate differently, she noted, and without losing their AAA ratings.
She agreed with any move to make oil and gas companies pay climate finance. “Fossil fuel companies are very responsible for the mess we are in ... anything that could be got out of the fossil fuel companies is good”
With current difficulties at Cop27, she said: “I can really understand the anger and frustration of developing countries, and they’ve been talking about climate justice since 2003, and the injustice is very tangible.”
It did not help, however, to look for “reparations language”, she believed, because that entailed lawyers bringing cases in courts, “and that frightens away countries that do see there’s an injustice there”.
She noted 4.4 billion people got on aeroplanes and flew in 2019. “If we put a dollar for every flight, we could raise almost $4 billion (€3.85 billion) immediately.” But a mosaic of solutions was required, she said, backed by $2 trillion for the developed world including $1 trillion for Africa, figures confirmed by recent analysis.
Speaking at an event on green growth, Mr Ryan said he was worried Cop27 was not on course for a good outcome underpinned by climate justice. With anything that is done on loss and damage, “we need to prioritise and protect the most vulnerable countries” rather than every country in the developing world, he added.
However, the president of Cop27 said he was optimistic a deal on loss and damage can be reached, despite disagreements over who should pay for destruction caused by climate change. “I certainly will work to reach that landing zone in a way that’s satisfactory, Egyptian foreign affairs minister Sameh Shoukry said.
Richer countries, already falling short on previous commitments to the developing world, are wary about exposing themselves to open-ended liabilities.
A draft text released early this week gave the conference two possible options. The first, likely to be harder for the industrialised world to accept, would commit to establishing a loss-and-damage fund by late 2024. The second proposes two years of technical work on whether the issue should ultimately be addressed through a “mosaic of funding arrangements”. The latter is supported by the United States and the EU.
Governments are supposed to be building on pledges made last year at Cop26 in Glasgow. These include limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, doubling the amount of financial assistance for poor countries to adapt to the impacts of extreme weather, and addressing the issue of loss and damage, which means financial assistance for countries stricken by climate disaster.
However, documents and proposals seen by the Guardian on Tuesday, and accounts from negotiating teams, showed some countries attempting to unpick agreements and water down commitments.
Trócaire has expressed serious concern at the lack of progress on the establishment of a loss and damage fund to compensate those hardest hits by climate change, saying it feared the issue will be “kicked to touch again” as the summit enters its final days.
“With three days to go it is vital that a loss and damage fund remains firmly on the Cop27 table and isn’t blocked again by developed countries, leaving the world’s poorest countries continue to struggle to pay for the devastating impacts of the climate crisis,” said Trócaire head of advocacy and policy Siobhán Curran.
Noting Minister for the Environment, Eamon Ryan, has been appointed the EU’s lead negotiator on the issue, she added: “After 30 years of delay, it’s deeply disappointing to see richer countries and blocs continuing to kick this issue to touch. The reality is that some of the most marginalised people in the world who have not caused the climate crisis are suffering the most.”
“So far at COP we have seen pledges of finance, but these are a relabelling of previous promises. It’s deeply unfair that the world’s poorest countries are being forced to divert much needed public finance for sustainable development into dealing with crises and are incurring massive debt,” Ms Curran said.
Developing countries wanted a decision to create a fund for loss and damage. “Instead developed countries are calling for more time to assess the current support landscape, coordinate relevant actors and institutions and to identify gaps and possible sources of funding. Developing countries see this as kicking the can down the road,” she said.
