Germany expects the economic devastation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic to be less severe this year than originally feared, but sluggish foreign demand is likely to weaken the rebound in Europe’s largest economy next year.
Presenting the government's updated forecasts on Tuesday, economy minister Peter Altmaier said a strong response from the state was helping fuel a quicker than expected recovery from the coronavirus shock.
“The recession in the first half of the year turned out to be less severe than we had feared,” Altmaier told reporters, adding that the worst was over for the economy.
“Overall, we can say that at least for now, we are dealing with a V-shaped development,” Altmaier said. He added that he did not expect authorities to impose another round of lockdown measures as in March and April.
Confirming an earlier Reuters report, Altmaier said Berlin had revised upwards its 2020 forecast to a decline of 5.8 per cent from a previous estimate of -6.3 per cent.
That would still represent the biggest economic slump since the second World War. The German economy contracted by 5.7 per cent in 2009 as the global financial crisis unfolded.
For 2021, the government revised downward its growth forecast to an expansion of 4.4 per cent from its previous estimate of 5.2 per cent. This means the economy will not reach its pre-pandemic size before early 2022, Altmaier said.
The government expects exports to tumble by 12.1 per cent this year before jumping by 8.8 per cent in 2021. Private consumption is seen falling by 6.9 per cent this year and then rising by 4.7 per cent in 2021.
The revised forecasts will form the basis of tax revenue estimates, which the finance ministry is expected to update next week. This will be followed by finance minister Olaf Scholz’s proposal for the federal government’s budget in 2021.
Scholz has already said he will ask parliament to suspend constitutionally enshrined debt limits next year so that the government can plan its 2021 budget with new debt as it sees necessary.
Germany’s Bundestag lower house of parliament suspended the debt brake in March and June to allow the government to borrow an additional €217.8 billion this year.
The government has launched an unprecedented array of rescue and stimulus measures since March to shield companies and consumers from the initial impact of the pandemic and help them recover as quickly as possible.
The economy contracted by a record 9.7 per cent in the second quarter as consumer spending, company investment and exports all collapsed.
Germany fared better than some other euro zone economies, however. The French economy contracted by 13.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period and Italy’s shrank by 12.8 per cent.
The German central bank expects household spending to drive a strong recovery in the third quarter, helped by stimulus measures including a temporary cut in value-added tax. The Ifo economic institute predicts the economy will rebound with a quarterly growth rate of some 7 per cent in July-September. – Reuters
