Ground Floor: I was thinking of the cyclical nature of life the other day (sometimes my philosophical streak gets the better of my work ethic).

The short-term cycle was what originally caught my attention - the fact that it seemed to me I'd only just filed a Ground Floor piece before the deadline came around again. Then, as the apples started thudding down from the tree in the back garden thanks to the onslaught of autumnal weather, I started thinking of the annual cycle and, finally, because I decided to visit some department stores, I realised that a long-term cycle had completed a revolution - ponchos had returned with a vengeance.

I was about 10 years old the last time that they were a fashion statement and obviously was at the cutting edge with my own poncho back then, but it does go to prove that nothing is truly new, just a variation on a theme.

The whole concept of cycles occupies many market traders and, indeed, has given rise to the complete industry of technical analysis, whereby chartists pore over graphs in an attempt to predict exactly where in a particular cycle the market might be.

Actually, technical analysts are said to consider the market to be about 80 per cent psychological and 20 per cent logical, whereas fundamental analysts believe the opposite.

I always found that most traders tended to use technical analysis to back up a decision that they'd already made and most technical analysts used charts to explain why a move had happened rather than to predict what was going to happen. Then the traders used them to justify the trade they'd ultimately done.

I was never very good with charts but I always loved the terminology. How could you not when the chartist presented you with an almost incomprehensible piece of paper packed with lines and boxes and drew your attention to chart points with enticing names such as "bump and run", "falling wedge" and "double bottom"? (I refused to allow the "triple bottom" phrase to be used in my presence. A girl can only take so much!)

And, even though they were as clear to me as the proverbial mud bath, I also loved the concept of candlestick charts with the lovely "dragonfly doji" signal. A doji normally indicated a market turning point but, as always, it was more recognisable after the event than before. (Candlestick charts were first used by the Japanese in the 17th century to analyse rice prices, which supports my theory that nothing in the markets is new.)

Chartists also talk about Elliott waves and Fibonacci numbers although, again, I was more enticed by the names than the concepts they represented. Nevertheless, Fibonacci numbers have a long history and their recurring patterns are found in many natural phenomena.

Mathematicians - and many musicians - love Fibonacci numbers and can do all sorts of complex equations with them. Sadly, my eyes would glaze over if I didn't see a clear buy or sell signal; traders can be very one-dimensional at times.

The trouble with charts and technical analysis, from my point of view, was that each one seemed to provide its own interpretation - so that a turning point on a candlestick chart wouldn't necessarily be reflected at the same moment as a turning point on a bar chart. This has led to people saying that technical analysis is more of an art than a science (and some of my clients suggesting that analysing the tea leaves had just as much chance of being right).

Probably the main indicators on charts are the support and resistance levels - points at which prices either rebound from the support (demand supposedly being high enough to prevent further price falls) or fail to break through resistance (supply being enough to satisfy all demand).

Naturally, of course, support doesn't always provide the safety net on the downside and resistance can just as easily be broken. In which case, the chartists find a whole new set of levels to aim for. Quixotically, support can turn into resistance and vice versa.

The Elliott wave theory can be used to explain stock market movements. It assumes that the market is not efficient (the opposite view to many free marketers) and in fact suggests that the participants overreact to events, consistently thus underpricing or overpricing everything. So, to some extent, the Elliott wave theory measures the "sociological performances of the masses".

It suggests that there are five waves in any given direction followed by five waves in the opposite direction. The difficulty is in spotting the waves among the smaller corrections.

Charles Dow - of Dow Jones Industrial Average fame - reckoned that there were three well-defined trends that slotted into each other.

The first was daily variations, the second covered a period of 10-60 days, and the third covered four to six years. But, within an overall bull market, you could have significant corrections and the same could happen within a bear market.

The bottom line - and with market trading there always is a bottom line - is that you have to make up your own mind.

If using charts meant that you got everything right all the time, then a few large trades would see you pack it all in to enjoy the fruits of your labours. Ignoring charts can mean that you get enmeshed in a short-term correction rather than looking at a longer-term trend. And, although the cyclical viewpoint is still correct, you may never get back to the price levels at which you made your initial decision.

It's the same with the ponchos. I could have kept my patriotic green, white and orange one, but it would immediately be spotted as a relic from a distant time. Not to mention the fact that, of course, my body shape has undergone a few trend changes of its own since the 1960s.