Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s fall was always on the cards

The conventional political view in Washington was that Kevin McCarthy had for years coveted the role of speaker of the US House of Representatives. In the end he lasted 269 days in the post.

The speaker is a hugely important position in the US political system. It is next in line to the White House after the vice-president. The holder of the post controls the flow of legislation through the chamber.

But ultimately McCarthy, just like his predecessors Paul Ryan and John Boehner, found it impossible to manage the factions that make up the Republican Party in the House of Representatives, particularly those on the hard right who tormented him from the start.

McCarthy’s position was made more difficult as his party fared much worse than expected in last year’s midterm elections.

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A Republican majority of nine votes increased the leverage of those on the hard right such as Florida congressman Matt Gaetz.

When the new Congress convened in January after the election, it took 15 votes before McCarthy secured the speaker’s gavel in the face of opposition from critics on the right such as Gaetz, who did not believe he was on the same conservative wavelength.

In a concession to his right-wing critics, McCarthy agreed to change the House rules to allow just one member to table a motion to vacate the speakership. It was always a risky move and proved to be fatal. It was probably inevitable that at some point, sooner rather than later, there would be a clash that would lead to an attempt to unseat him.

In a divided government with Democrats controlling the Senate and the White House, compromise was going to be needed.

But compromise is not seen as a noble trait among some on the right of the Republican Party, who favour deep spending cuts, stronger measures to control immigration on the southern US border and, increasingly, oppose further aid to Ukraine.

Early in the summer, McCarthy faced his first big test in the face of a potential US debt default that would have caused economic chaos in the US and around the world.

Eventually he reached a deal with president Joe Biden on raising the US government’s official spending limit.

The move may have been welcomed by the markets but McCarthy’s deal with Biden strengthened the enmity of his critics on the hard right.

The Biden/McCarthy deal addressed the debt ceiling issue but the US government budget for next year still had to be finalised.

With just hours to go before the US government was scheduled to shut down last weekend, an agreement was reached with the help of Democrats on a temporary funding bill.

The deal funded the government until next month. However, it left out the provision of about $6 billion in planned funding for Ukraine, which is opposed by an increasing number on the right of the Republican Party.

In a speech in the House on Monday, Gaetz accused McCarthy of striking a secret deal with the White House to include new Ukraine funding as part of separate legislation.

McCarthy denied there was any side deal in place with Biden, who backs the continuation of funding for Ukraine in its battle against invading Russian forces.

McCarthy was defiant and urged his critics to “bring on” their challenge.

On Tuesday afternoon in Washington eight Republicans lined up with Democrats to oust him as speaker.

The House of Representatives was left leaderless, unable to pass any legislation until someone else is elected to take the gavel. With some McCarthy loyalists furious at Gaetz and his allies, divisions are emerging among Republicans.

In the meantime the clock is ticking down again towards another potential government shutdown in November when the temporary funding authorisation agreed last weekend is scheduled to run out.

It remains to be seen whether McCarthy will run again for the speakership.

Democrats will nominate their leader in the House, Hakeem Jeffries. . This is unlikely to be successful as it would require several Republicans to vote for him.

It also remains to be seen whether anyone else will be able to control the Republican Party in the House of Representatives.