Is there a dragon stirring in Wales? For historical and geographical reasons, it has been the most reluctant of the so-called “Celtic” nations to embrace separatism, but that is changing.
The Welsh remain reluctant separatists, with just 25 per cent in favour of independence, according to the latest YouGov poll. When “don’t knows” are excluded, those opposed to independence outnumber those in favour by two to one.
But the binary result does not tell the whole story. A generation ago, support for Welsh independence was a fringe pursuit. Devolution for Wales barely passed in 1997 with just 50.3 per cent voting for it, but a further referendum to expand the powers of the Welsh assembly in 2011 (the Senedd Cymru) garnered a 63.5 per cent backing.
The Welsh government’s assertive handling of the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated an increasing independence from London, while the Tory government’s plans to scrap a Welsh law prohibiting the use of agency workers to break strikes will test the bounds of devolution.
In politics, momentum is the most important thing, says Adam Price, leader of Plaid Cymru, the largest party in Wales advocating Welsh independence.
Price was in Dublin this week to address the Irish Association for Contemporary European Studies (IACES). He spoke about how the nationalist movements in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland can make up for the democratic deficit in larger nations.
I don’t think there will be any takers for the kingdom of England and the dominion of Wales
His visit coincided with the resignation of Boris Johnson as UK prime minister, a man he believes to be the “ringmaster of a cavalcade of clowns” and the “most effective recruitment sergeant” Welsh independence has ever had.
Price has carried out a study into how small countries operate. He qualified with an Masters in Public Administration (MPA) from Harvard 10 years ago on that subject. Small nations are more nimble and outward-looking because they are export-driven, he states.
He says popular support for independence in Wales is where Scotland was in 2010. By the time the referendum in the latter came around four years later, 45 per cent voted for the Scottish to leave the union.
He explains the campaign for Welsh independence is less an assertion of nationalist identity or a response to historic grievances, and more a “forward-looking movement”.
“It is about the practical benefits rather than some abstract idea of national self-determination. People are now increasingly pro-independence in their hearts. Now they want to hear the practical case,” he says.
Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon took many by surprise when she put forward a date for another Scottish referendum in October of next year.
If it goes ahead and passes, both big ifs, admittedly, what then will happen to Wales? What if the Scottish referendum were to be followed by a successful Border poll in Ireland? What would the rump even be called when the United Kingdom is no longer united?
“I don’t think there will be any takers for the kingdom of England and the dominion of Wales,” Price says, adding that it is a scenario Welsh people need to consider and prepare for even if they do not want independence.
“Wales has to make contingency plans if the union ceases to exist. We might end up by default where independence is the only realistic option for us. There is a lot of the important, boring detailed work that has to be done in designing the institutions for a new state. It would be judicious even for a unionist Labour government to do that work.”
We are aware of issues of equality within Irish society and how that wealth can be shared more equally, but in terms of the economic vitality of the Irish economy – you can see it happening in waves
Wales voted for Brexit by 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent, despite being a huge net recipient of EU structural and investment (ESI) funds.
Price says the Brexit vote was a “cri de cœur” from regions in Wales that have been left behind economically.
“There are many reasons why people voted for Brexit as the number of people who voted for Brexit,” he said.
“It was partially down to a sense of frustration and disenchantment that has delivered inter-generational poverty. You have seen a similar phenomenon in the north of England. Where’s the economic progress for those communities?
“Though they had EU investment, it did not change the position they are in because we are locked into this incredibly unequal British state. Brexit became the lightning conductor for that overwhelming sense of alienation with the political establishment.”
The biggest impediment, according to those opposed to Welsh independence, is the fiscal deficit. It is an argument familiar with those who say the Republic cannot afford a united Ireland. The fiscal deficit between total public spending and tax revenue in Wales was £13.5 billion (€16 billion) in 2018 and 2019, about 18 per cent of the estimated Gross Domestic Product.
It is a huge gap. How does Price plan to fill it?
“By putting our economy on a different trajectory. That’s the honest answer,” he says. “We think we have been held back from achieving our economic potential so there will be a dynamic effect. You take away those constraints and you will see us catch up. We are underperforming compared to our latent potential and so there will be a take-off from independence.
“We will be a government investing in our areas of competitive advantage. The Welsh economy is an economy of £75 billion. We will have the ability to tweak our tax regime which allows for example to create a patent box-like regime for start-ups so that they can keep more of their profits and invest in their growth.”
He sees in the Republic of Ireland an independent country that is “incredibly inspiring to us” and which has demonstrated how independence can allow small countries to respond to crisis.
“The Republic has transformed its economy over the last generation and a half. The growth rates achieved by the Irish economy were unparalleled for much of that period,” he said. “Obviously Irish society has its own unique issues. We are aware of issues of equality within Irish society and how that wealth can be shared more equally, but in terms of the economic vitality of the Irish economy – you can see it happening in waves.”
An unquantifiable factor in Welsh national pride has been the success of the national football team in qualifying for the World Cup for the first time since 1958. The continuing success of the team, which reached the Euro 2016 semi-finals, has seen a surge in national pride akin to that which surrounded Jack Charlton’s Ireland side in the late 1980s and early 1990s ahead of the Celtic Tiger of the late 1990s.
As a gay man, Price says he is in two minds about travelling to Qatar, but he is in no doubt about the impact the Wales team is having on national morale.
“It is huge. It is going to be one of the biggest impacts over the next few years. A lot of this comes down to confidence. We have lacked confidence as a nation in our own abilities, but to see Wales on the biggest world stage, the sheer symbolism of it and the emotional power of it, what does that say to us?” he says.
“We are an independent football nation. Why can’t we be independent in every sense?”
