Middle EastAnalysis

Diplomatic efforts intensify to prevent Israel-Hizbullah conflict turning to regional war

Fears rise over escalation as Israel’s military announces it has finalised plans for offensive in Lebanon

Unifil vehicles patrol in the Al Wazzani area in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. Photograph: EPA
Unifil vehicles patrol in the Al Wazzani area in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. Photograph: EPA
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Michael Jansen
Thu Jun 27 2024 - 19:00

Fears are rising in Beirut that Israel will transform escalating cross-border exchanges with the militant group Hizbullah into a full-scale offensive in Lebanon, risking regional war. Since Israel’s military announced that a plan for an offensive in Lebanon had been finalised, Israeli troops have conducted exercises near the Lebanese border and the US has stepped up efforts to avoid war.

In Beirut, Israeli-born US mediator Amos Hochstein warned Lebanese officials that the US “can’t hold Israel back if escalation continues” and would “stand by Israel” if it launched an offensive in Lebanon, according to the US news website Axios.

In Washington, US defence secretary Lloyd Austin told his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant this week that war would have “terrible consequences for the Middle East” and called for Israel to adopt diplomacy to “prevent more escalation”.

In the present explosive situation, Israel has a choice. As its Gaza offensive winds down, it could build up troops in the north to attack Lebanon. This would be popular with Israelis, as 60 per cent backed war in a mid-June poll. Or, Israel could push for Iran-backed Hizbullah to honour its pledge to cease fire once Israel eases its onslaught on Gaza or accepts a Gaza ceasefire.

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As Lebanon’s caretaker foreign minister Abdallah Bou Habib embarked on a mission to Brussels, Washington, New York and Ottawa in a bid to avert war, Lebanon’s weak government was pressed to rein in Hizbullah. German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock urged “extreme restraint” and said “miscalculation” could trigger war while Vatican secretary of state Pietro Parolin called on the warring sides to accept “peace proposals”.

Speaking in Geneva, UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths said Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza could spill over into Lebanon and draw in Syria and others. “I see it as the flashpoint [and] potentially apocalyptic,” he said.

Pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq have declared they would reinforce Hizbullah if Israel attacked Lebanon, while a reluctant Iran could be compelled to launch volleys of missiles at Israel as it did in April. The European Union could become involved if Hizbullah struck UK and Cypriot airbases in Cyprus. Hizbullah has threatened to target Cyprus if it allows Israel to use its territory in any conflict between the two sides.

[ Department of Foreign Affairs planning for possible evacuation of Irish citizens from Lebanon ]

Violence spiralled across the Lebanese-Israeli frontier after Hizbullah initiated exchanges of fire when Israel attacked Gaza in response to the October 7th raid on Israel by Hamas.

During the Hizbullah-Israel exchanges 90,000 people on each side have fled their towns and villages, 481 people have been killed in southern Lebanon, including 94 civilians, and 15 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.

Germany, Sweden, Australia, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Canada and Kuwait have told their citizens to leave Lebanon; others advise nationals not to travel to Beirut.