The jailing of popular Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu is regarded as an attempt to eliminate a potent threat to the 22-year reign of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Erdogan became Turkey’s first directly elected president in 2014 after serving as prime minister for 11 years as leader the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
A populist who has the support of majority conservative, devout Muslims, Erdogan – a religious fundamentalist – has won elections but divided the country by alienating minority secularists who adhere to the reformist line taken by modern Turkey’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
Erdogan has asserted control over the administration, the judiciary and the military and excluded personal and party opponents from elections. In 2018, he transformed Turkey’s 95-year-old parliamentary system into a presidential system, expanded executive powers and introduced a two-term limit on presidents.
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After he was re-elected in 2023, Erdogan said he would not stand in 2028. However, the detention of Imamoglu could indicate Erdogan has changed his mind. An early election would allow him to overcome term limits.
Erdogan has survived multiple crises by knowing when to crack down and when to compromise. In 2013, he rode two months of countrywide protests before giving up on his plan to build a development in Istanbul’s Taksim Gezi Park, the last green space in the European side of the city.
In July 2016, an armed forces faction mounted a coup against Erdogan and his government but the attempt failed. Some 77,000 people were arrested and 160,000 fired from their jobs for alleged connections to the coup.
Between 2016 and 2023 members of Erdogan’s family were accused of corruption and money laundering but they have escaped prosecution. In 2023, he was criticised for his handling of the earthquake in southeastern Turkey that killed 50,000 and destroyed cities, towns and villages where contractors were not compelled by the authorities to construct buildings that could survive strong earthquakes.
Erdogan’s standing has fallen due to the country’s seven-year-long economic and financial crisis. This has led to a plunge in the value of the Turkish currency, rising inflation and a high cost of living. Erdogan has been widely blamed by the public because he has cut interest rates instead of raising them to counter inflation.
The results of Turkey’s 2024 municipal elections shocked Erdogan. For the first time since 2002, the AKP slipped to second place, while the opposition Republican Turkish party won in both Istanbul and Ankara. This could explain his latest crackdown.
Although blamed for jailing Imamoglu, Erdogan is unlikely to face censure or sanctions. The United States, European Union and Nato depend on a stable Turkey to counter Russia and instability in the Middle East. The Arabs rely on Turkey to use its connection with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to stabilise Syria following the fall of the 54-year Assad dynasty.
