Return of Poland’s Tusk changes balance of power in EU

Donald Tusk beamed as he walked along the row of national flags towards the waiting media, a moment marking his triumphant return to join fellow European Union leaders at a summit in Brussels after a battle to end the eight-year slide towards authoritarianism in Poland under the nationalist Law and Justice party.

“I am in the centre,” the prime minister joked to reporters as he positioned himself in front of the cameras, a quip about his political position as leader of the pragmatist Civic Platform party that formed a coalition government on Wednesday.

“I’m really happy to be here again. Poland is back here in Europe, and this is for me the most important moment in my political life, I think.”

It was a significant moment, too, for the wider EU.

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Almost immediately, Poland’s ambassador to the EU was recalled to Warsaw, removing a political appointee known for uncompromising party-political zealotry in negotiations.

Polish officials were notorious for obstructing any EU files that mentioned gender equality, which is standard EU language in many areas such as development aid. “They seem to want to turn the clock back,” one diplomat remarked after yet another decision was blocked earlier this year.

As the fifth largest member state by population, Poland can tilt EU decisions made by qualified majority voting, which takes the population size of countries into account.

But it long punched below its weight under a government that leant Eurosceptic and is described by diplomats as having neither much understanding of the EU nor much interest in exerting its force within it.

Several diplomats heralded the return of Tusk as meaning Poland would be restored to its rightful place as a force within the EU among the other big powers of France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

“With Tusk we have a major power back,” one said.

Tusk is in prime position to wield that sway, as an old friend of many leaders who is deeply steeped in the workings of the EU as he chaired its discussions for five years as president of the European Council.

“There’s a government in Poland now that is very pro-EU and wants things to work, but also knows how it works, and will be able to make a serious contribution to that,” one diplomat said.

The change isolates Hungary. The invasion of Ukraine had hurt the old alliance between the two countries, as Poland, a staunch ally of Kyiv, was alienated by Budapest’s ambivalent status on the war and continued courting of Moscow.

Nevertheless, until now Poland and Hungary could still count on each other for protection if the EU tried to use Article 7, the stripping of voting rights that is the strongest tool available to compel member states to follow the rule of law, eroded in both countries by the political stacking of the judiciary and media. Hungary’s Viktor Orban is now more alone.

Some diplomats, however, sound a note of caution. Orbán is used to playing the black sheep, could pursue an alliance with populist-ruled Slovakia, and Tusk may be preoccupied with a difficult domestic agenda at home.

“This is a different Poland than when he was last in power,” from 2007-2014, one diplomat warned. “It’s a divided Poland. He has some heavy lifting to do.”

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