More severe storms may hit Ireland than normal over the coming months, as scientists expect record ocean temperatures driven by climate change to fuel the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.
The world’s oceans hit a new record of 20.96 degrees at the end of July, according to data from the European Union’s Copernicus satellite, a figure that is well above average and is expected to signal serious impacts on marine life and on weather patterns.
“Warmer-than-normal waters in the tropical Atlantic provide more fuel for hurricanes,” hurricane researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) explained in a new forecast this week.
Unusual conditions mean much uncertainty surrounds this year’s hurricane season, which peaks from August to October and can cause ex-hurricanes and tropical storms to tear across Ireland from the Atlantic, such as Storm Ophelia in 2017.
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The current planetary warming cycle El Niño usually acts to reduce hurricanes by causing a change of wind patterns that breaks up storms.
However, the higher ocean temperatures are expected to counteract the moderating influence of El Niño, causing hurricane activity to be roughly a third greater this year than the average season, according to the CSU report.
Britain’s Met Office has forecast the number of major hurricanes in the North Atlantic with winds of at least 179km/h to double this year from three to six.
The UK meteorologists also estimated there will be 19 named tropical storms and nine hurricanes, an increase on the number that usually take place.
The record ocean temperatures follow extreme marine heatwaves in prior months, which saw some of the most severe temperature increases in the world take place in the seas around Ireland and the UK in June.
The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned of “exceptionally high” sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea in the coming days and weeks, exceeding 30 degrees in parts, and more than four degrees above average in much of the western Mediterranean.
A sea surface temperature of 38.4 degrees was reported in Manatee Bay off the coast of Florida, which is warmer than a hot bath.
Marine heatwaves drive extreme weather as well as causing the mass death of ocean life and coral bleaching, with serious effects on those who rely on the sea.
“The impacts of marine heatwaves impacts include migration of species and extinctions, arrival of invasive species with consequences for fisheries and aquaculture,” the WMO warned.
This summer saw France, Greece, Italy, Spain, Algeria and Tunisia hit record temperatures, severe wildfires in Canada and the Mediterranean, and deadly flooding in Asia in a so-called “summer of extremes”.
“The extreme weather – an increasingly frequent occurrence in our warming climate – is having a major impact on human health, ecosystems, economies, agriculture, energy and water supplies. This underlines the increasing urgency of cutting greenhouse gas emissions as quickly and as deeply as possible,” WMO chief Prof Petteri Taalas said in a statement.
“In addition, we have to step up efforts to help society adapt to what is unfortunately becoming the new normal.”
