A revolt of Wagner mercenaries that fizzled out as abruptly as it began over the weekend reveals internal Russian weakness and Europe’s response should be to double down on support to Ukraine, European Union foreign ministers have said.
Discussion of the sudden march towards Moscow led by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin dominated a meeting of the 27 foreign ministers in Luxembourg, which had been scheduled to discuss support for Ukraine and other issues. “These events have shown that the Russian state and Putin’s personal credibility being weakened. This is the least one can say. The political system is showing cracks,” the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell told reporters.
Russia “may be entering into an era of political instability and internal fragility”, Mr Borrell continued, noting that risks to the EU could be posed by “internal political fragility and instability in a major nuclear power”.
Several ministers remarked that the situation remained unclear, but that Russian president Vladimir Putin would appear to have been weakened by the aborted attack by Mr Prigozhin, who publicly denounced Moscow’s official rationale for the invasion of Ukraine as a lie.
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“It is my interpretation that Putin is weakened to some extent at least, and hopefully that could have at least an impact on the rest of the world’s willingness to discuss a post-war situation in Ukraine,” Denmark’s foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen told reporters.
The revolt came at a propitious time for Ukraine as it fights to claim back territory in the country’s east where Wagner forces have been a major antagonist.
Mr Rasmussen said that the revolt had the potential to affect the conflict, but that the implications were unclear.
Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia agreed to enhance their border security with neighbouring Belarus after Mr Prigozhin was reported to be in exile there as part of an apparent deal to end his revolt.
“It took half a day for a military detachment to move 200km away from Moscow,” said Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, saying countries that are geographically close by needed to take note.
Mr Landsbergis likened the events to other times in history when Russia faced internal instability after struggling with a conflict abroad, such as prior to the Russian revolution and during its intervention in Afghanistan.
“Russia is overextended. If you look at the history whenever Russia was involved in an external war that it could not handle properly it would bring political turmoil at home,” Mr Landsbergis said. “I think we are seeing something similar.”
