The British government is steeling itself for a long war in Ukraine, as the UK’s armed forces minister said it is “not realistic” to expect Russia to be completely defeated this year.
James Heappey also quipped he is currently one of the “world’s biggest arms dealers” due to the amount of time he spends travelling internationally buying weapons for Ukraine.
“I was stopped at Heathrow the other day and the [airport security official] asked me what I do for a living. I replied ‘arms dealer’,” he said, during a briefing for international media at the ministry of defence in Whitehall.
When asked how the security official responded, he said: “The guy looked up and recognised me, told me good job, and to keep going.”
Conservative MP Mr Heappey claimed countries that had abstained on votes censuring Russia at the United Nations were, in fact, secretly helping an international effort to back Ukraine behind the scenes. Nato members such as the United States and Britain are providing most military support, but even Ireland, which is traditionally militarily neutral, has agreed to train Ukrainian soldiers.
“When I’ve come knocking [looking for weapons], there has been stuff that [countries that have not publicly announced support] been able to give or sell ... The coalition of support for Ukraine extends far wider than the public record shows,” said the minister.
He said it “will take as long as it takes” for Ukraine to defeat Russia, which invaded one year ago on Friday. He said the level of weapons pledged, and their increasing sophistication, meant it was “entirely realistic” for a Ukraine offensive this spring or summer to succeed.
Mr Heappey, a former army major, was vague when asked to define “succeed”. But he suggested it could include a combination of “significant territorial gains”, being able to show the “Russian military machine is incapable of resupplying,” and sparking “duress” in its decision making.
“[But] it is not entirely realistic to expect complete Ukrainian success this year,” said Mr Heappey. He again refused to define such success for Ukraine, and whether it includes retaking the Russian-speaking peninsula of Crimea, which Russia annexed by force in 2014.
Britain has given £2.3 billion of military aid to Ukraine over the last year and pledged the same again in 2023. But Mr Heappey appeared to play down expectations that Britain would supply fighter jets any time soon. During a visit to London this month by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Britain announced it would train Ukrainian pilots on Nato-standard Typhoon jets.
“That announcement ... was not made in direct anticipation that we would then give jets,” he said. Former prime minister Boris Johnson has been prominent among senior Tories calling for the government to grant Ukraine’s request for fighter aircraft.
Mr Heappey said a “crescendo of [weapons] gifting” for Ukraine in recent weeks meant it was “pretty much there” with what it needs to mount a successful offensive against Russia in coming months. He said the appearance of further military victories may also be necessary to maintain public support for efforts to buttress Ukraine in its struggle.
When pushed on what Britain would accept as a “successful outcome”, he said it would only be one that was acceptable to Mr Zelenskiy. “That is the message we need to send to Vladimir Putin. He must fail and be seen to fail.”
