Political discourse opens up ahead of Swedish elections

Ahead of Sunday’s general election, Swedish voters have kept their politicians - and, indeed, themselves - in the dark as to who they believe is best suited to tackle international and domestic insecurities.

Fears over rising energy prices and a taboo-breaking discussion linking violent crime to immigration have, in election debates, eclipsed talk of Sweden’s controversial pandemic approach and even its unprecedented Nato application in May.

The choice facing Swedes on Sunday: switch allegiances to a centre-right government, possibly supported by the far-right, or re-elect a tougher-talking centre-left administration headed by the Social Democratic Party.

A final poll showed the four-party centre-left camp just 0.4 per cent ahead of its centre-right rivals, adding further suspense to what is likely to be a historic vote.

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Social Democrat prime minister Magdalena Andersson is rewriting energy policy on the fly and has adopted a much tougher tone on law and order issues.

After decades of liberal multi-culturalism, an increase in ghetto gun crime and, most recently, an attack on a mother and child in a playground has shaken Swedes into questioning their well-intentioned approach towards new arrivals and immigrant communties.

On the campaign trail, Andersson’s message has echoed her mantra on joining Nato: the circumstances have changed and so must Sweden.

“If you want to change your country you have to see what is actually happening in your country,” she said on Friday, repeating promises of higher penalties for violent crime, more money for police and active intervention to break up immigrant ghettos.

“We see that, when gang leaders go behind bars a new generation of boys want to take their place. My priority is to stop segregation and make sure they choose another future.”

Just 10 months in office, Andersson’s no-nonsense style has seen her pull in support from all sides. Some 39 per cent of Swedes would like to see her returned as prime minister, 10 points ahead of projected support for her party. As a result, her party has built its campaign almost entirely around its leader, with striking images of Andersson wearing no make-up and with no airbrushing.

For every new voter gained, though, Ms Andersson’s realigned immigration rhetoric risks support of traditional Social Democrat voters who view Sweden’s Nato membership bid as a sell-out of core principles.

Sweden centre-right leader Ulf Kristersson has been close to power before and, on Sunday, hopes voters embrace his Moderates as a more credible law and order party. Their second trump card: attacking government policy that could see Sweden struggling to keep the lights on this winter.

“We used to have one of the world’s most efficient electricity production systems but this government has deliberately shut down nuclear power, a very bad decision,” he said. “We need to combine all the fossil-free free sources of energy includes nuclear.”

While Kristersson rules out a coalition with the far-right, he insists the Moderates are “open to co-operate where we have common ground on the issues”.

That has alienated some of his traditional centre-right allies and seen the Moderates slip into third place behind the far-right, populist Sweden Democrats (SD)

Sweden’s rightward rhetorical shift on SD bread-and-butter issues - immigration and public order - has boosted the party and its leader Jimmie Akesson. In campaign materials the party presents itself as the only honest political alternative to the “lying mainstream”, the natural defender of hard-working voters and “svenska fliten” or Swedish industriousness.

Swedish political observers see a shift in party campaign imagery and messaging, away from far-right extremism towards a softer “ethno-nationalism”. Its official campaign anthem promises to revive the “hard toil of our fathers that gave us security”.

“Sweden has been a great country, a safe country, a successful country,” said Akesson at a Thursday campaign appearance. “It can be all these things again.”

As the price for its political support, the SD has flagged key migration demands: the deportation of immigrants with an “antisocial lifestyle” and a “net zero” immigration policy, including for those who seek asylum in Sweden.

On the campaign trail SD candidates have shrugged off Nazi scandals, dubbed Islam “an abominable religion” and faced furious protest by leftist groups.

While global insecurity - and Sweden’s spring 2023 presidency - are likely to concentrate minds on forming a government, leading politicians have dismissed calls for a national unity administration to avoid months of political drift that followed the 2018 election.

With an uncertain outcome, many political analysts agree that the limits of permissable Swedish political discourse is “like night and day” to four years ago.

“You can say things now as an established politician that you never could before without being seen as a radical,” said Prof Andrej Kokkonen, political scientist at the University of Gothenburg. “The Sweden Democrats are not interested in power but influence, and support for them on Sunday could be higher than than polls suggest.”