AmericasAnalysis

Political and economic unrest set to continue in Bolivia despite failure of military coup

Ruling party Mas deeply split between supporters of the president Luis Arce and his one-time mentor, party founder and former president Evo Morales

Bolivian police hold the detained Gen Juan Jose Zuniga following his failed coup attempt in La Paz. Photograph: Juan Karita/AP

Tom Hennigan's face
Tom Hennigan in São Paulo
Thu Jun 27 2024 - 19:18

After several chaotic hours that mixed fear and farce, a coup attempt in Bolivia by a disgruntled ex-head of the military looks to have been defeated.

Having led a contingent of men and armoured cars to the presidential palace in La Paz, Gen Juan José Zúñiga ended Wednesday being paraded before the media following his arrest by police.

The afternoon had started with the general demanding that president Luis Arce make changes to his cabinet and release jailed opposition politicians. Arce instead went to the doors of the palace and live on television told Zúñiga to return to barracks.

Whether Zúñiga expected more military units to rally to his cause is unknown. But he beat a retreat when it became clear no further support was forthcoming and Arce would not cede to his demands.

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While waiting for the police to arrive he gave a statement in which he said he had acted on the president’s orders, claiming his coup attempt was nothing more than a stunt to boost Arce’s popularity, a claim dismissed by the palace as “absolutely false”.

If Wednesday’s turmoil appears to have elements of Latin American farce, that is undoubtedly in part because it failed. Having fizzled out as quickly as it started it looks to have been a reckless, poorly planned affair. But authorities are now investigating how far Zúñiga’s conspiracy spread within the military and if any political figures were aware of his intentions or promised their support should he have imposed his will on the presidential palace.

The reality is, whether acting alone or betrayed by co-conspirators, Zúñiga’s march on the palace took place against a darkening political and economic backdrop that risks pushing the poor Andean nation into crisis.

Bolivian president Luis Arce celebrates with supporters following the failure of the attempted coup. Photograph: Juan Karita/AP

The immediate backdrop to this week’s events is the bitter dispute within Arce’s ruling Movement Towards Socialism party (Mas). Having dominated the country’s politics for the last two decades, Mas is now split between supporters of the president and his one-time mentor, party founder and former president Evo Morales.

Both want to be the party’s candidate in presidential elections next year and are locked in a bitter struggle for the nomination that has split the party down the middle. Morales insists on his candidacy even after the constitutional court ruled last year he was ineligible to run, a decision he says was orchestrated by Arce.

The prospect of Morales returning to the presidency is deeply opposed by many in Bolivia within and beyond Mas because of what opponents see as his increasingly authoritarian style of populism.

When president between 2006 and 2019 he constantly changed the constitution to extend his time in power in a country where presidents were traditionally restricted to one term. He was eventually ousted during bloody unrest that broke out amid claims he was attempting to steal the 2019 presidential election which he had contested despite Bolivians voting in a referendum against allowing him to run for a fourth term.

This internal Mas dispute appears to be behind this week’s unrest. On Monday Zúñiga, still then head of the military, gave a television interview saying he would arrest Morales if he insisted on his candidacy for next year’s election. Morales responded by warning a coup was being planned.

By Tuesday Arce concluded he could not tolerate such a brazen intervention in civilian affairs by the military’s top man, even if he was a close ally whom he had appointed to the role only earlier this year. Fired on Tuesday evening, by Wednesday afternoon Zúñiga had launched his ill-fated gamble.

Demonstrators outside the presidential palace in La Paz, Bolivia after the failed coup attempt against the nation’s socialist government. Photographer: Marcelo Perez del Carpio/Bloomberg

But while Zúñiga’s rebellion might have been defeated, the dispute within Mas is set to continue, further destabilising the country’s politics as arcistas and evistas wage their war against each other through the country’s institutions. This dispute is taking place against a darkening economic backdrop. The country is running out of dollars, causing growing problems with the balance of payments and difficulties paying for essential imports such as petrol.

The root of the problem is Mas’s failure to properly manage the country’s gas industry which was its major source of foreign earnings.

Nationalisation of the sector in 2006 initially provided a bonanza for state coffers. But in the 18 years since then Brazil and Argentina, the main customers for Bolivian gas, have switched their investment focus towards domestic sources meaning production in Bolivia, now starved of investment, has gone into steep decline.

Mas has long heralded the country’s huge lithium reserves – a vital metal for the energy transition – as a future economic game-changer. But delays in tapping its reserves mean gas exports will likely have ended before lithium exports are ready to take their place in bolstering state coffers.

So while Wednesday’s coup attempt might have been neutralised, uncertainty in Bolivia, both political and economic, is likely to deepen in the months ahead.

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