Donald Trump has stepped back from the brink with a unilateral, indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran. Getting a peace deal will be harder.
Back from the brink
Trump’s unilateral announcement of an indefinite extension to the two-week ceasefire with Iran is a step back from the brink that offers Pakistani mediators a chance to sustain negotiations between the two sides. But the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the US military build-up in the region continues and the partially observed ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is due to expire on Sunday.
Iran’s initial reaction was sceptical, with Mahdi Mohammadi, a national security adviser to parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, dismissing the extension as having no meaning.
“The losing side cannot set conditions. The continuation of the blockade is no different from bombing and must be responded to militarily. Moreover, the extension of the ceasefire by Trump certainly means buying time in order to deliver a surprise strike. It is the time for Iran’s initiative,” he said.
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But while Iran has threatened to take action in response to US forces attacking and boarding Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran describes as acts of piracy, it looks set to continue to observe the ceasefire. Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif said he hoped both sides would do so “and be able to conclude a comprehensive peace deal during the second round of talks scheduled at Islamabad for a permanent end to the conflict”.
The talks were due to have started on Tuesday but US vice-president JD Vance had to postpone his flight a number of times as Iranian negotiators refused to confirm their participation. Announcing the ceasefire extension, Trump said the Iranian government was “seriously fractured” and needed time to come up with a unified proposal for the negotiations.
The main issues are: Iran’s nuclear programme; the future of the Strait of Hormuz; security guarantees; war reparations, sanctions relief and frozen assets; and Lebanon. And despite Trump’s maximalist demands at the start of the campaign, which included regime change in Tehran, an agreement is possible.
On the nuclear programme, Iran insists on its right to enrich uranium under the Non-Proliferation Treaty but is willing to suspend it for a number of years in return for sanctions relief. According to media reports, the US wants a 20-year suspension and Iran’s opening offer was for five years.
The US is demanding Iran allow all ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and that it must not levy a toll, a position supported by the Europeans, most of the Gulf monarchies and other states including China. Iran is asserting its right to control the strait and wants to use it to raise revenue, which it could share with Oman, the coastal state on the other side of the waterway.
Iran wants a guarantee of no more military action against it from the US and Israel and it is demanding reparations for the damage caused by the bombardment in recent weeks, along with the lifting of sanctions and the release of its frozen assets. And Tehran wants Washington to ensure that Israel refrains from further military action against Lebanon.
The 10-day truce Trump negotiated between Israel and Lebanon expires on Sunday but it includes a mechanism allowing for an extension if Lebanon demonstrates its ability to assert sovereignty over Hizbullah. It is an impossible demand but Iran regards the truce in Lebanon, however partial in its observance by Israel, as a prerequisite for its continued ceasefire with the US.
One promising sign is the confidence both Washington and Tehran appear to have in Pakistan as a mediator. Pakistani officials have worked closely with their counterparts in Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia while keeping others including China in the loop.
If talks resume in Islamabad this week, they are unlikely to produce a comprehensive peace deal but they could produce a framework for negotiating such a deal, along with a series of confidence-building, de-escalating measures. The most important of those would be a removal of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s agreement to allow ships to pass through it.
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