Deeper and more entrenched divisions over Russia’s war in Ukraine risk derailing progress on issues such as food security, debt distress and global co-operation on climate change when the world’s most powerful nations meet this weekend in New Delhi.
The hardened stance on the war has prevented agreement on even a single communique at the 20 or so ministerial meetings of the G20 during India’s presidency this year, leaving it to the leaders to find a way around, if possible.
China will be represented by premier Li Qiang, not president Xi Jinping, while Russia has confirmed president Vladimir Putin’s absence, suggesting that neither nation is likely to join any consensus.
That means the two-day summit from September 9th will be dominated by the West and its allies. The G20 leaders who will attend include US president Joe Biden, German chancellor Olaf Scholz, French president Emmanuel Macron, Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman and Japan’s Fumio Kishida.
A notice on the Chinese foreign ministry’s website said: “At the invitation of the government of the Republic of India, premier of the state council Li Qiang will attend the 18th G20 Summit to be held in New Delhi, India, on September 9th and 10th.”
Relations between China and India have grown frosty over their disputed border that three years ago resulted in a violent clash between their troops, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese.
They have also clashed over trade and India’s growing strategic ties with China’s main regional rival, the United States.
India recently overtook China as the world’s most populous nation and the two are rivals in technology, space exploration and global trade.
Chinese and Indian military commanders met just last month and pledged to “maintain the peace and tranquillity” along their disputed border, in an apparent effort by the sides to stabilise the situation.
The Line of Actual Control separates Chinese- and Indian-held territories from Ladakh in the west to India’s eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims in its entirety.
India and China fought a war over their border in 1962. As its name suggests, the line divides the areas of physical control rather than territorial claims.
According to India, the de facto border is 3.487km long, but China promotes a considerably shorter figure.
In all, China claims some 90,649sq km of territory in India’s northeast, including Arunachal Pradesh with its mainly Buddhist population.
India says China occupies 38,849sq km of its territory in the Aksai Chin Plateau, which India considers part of Ladakh, where the current face-off is happening.
China, in the meantime, began cementing relations with India’s arch-rival Pakistan and backing it on the issue of disputed Kashmir.
Firefights broke out again in 1967 and 1975, leading to more deaths on both sides. They have since adopted protocols, including an agreement not to use firearms, but those protocols have fractured.
Other than the potential effects on China-India relations, Mr Xi’s absence at the summit will also eliminate the possibility of an interaction with US president Joe Biden.
Chinese-US relations remain at a historic low despite recent visits by US secretary of state Antony Blinken and other officials to Beijing.
Speculation had churned for days that Mr Xi would not attend, and even before China’s official announcement, Mr Biden told reporters on Sunday he did not expect a meeting with the Chinese leader.
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India, which has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will have to either convince the bloc to agree to a joint statement – the so-called Leaders Declaration – or allow its presidency to be the first to end without such a communique since 2008.
“The positions have hardened since the Bali Summit,” a senior Indian government official told Reuters, referring to the 2022 summit held in Indonesia. “Russia and China have toughened their position since then, a consensus would be very hard.”
Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau and Russian minister for foreign affairs Sergei Lavrov, who will come in place of Putin, have already drawn battle lines.
Trudeau, while confirming that he will travel to India for the meeting in a call with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said that he was disappointed that the Ukrainian president was not invited.
“As you know, we will be speaking up strongly for you, and we will continue to make sure that the world is standing with Ukraine,” Trudeau said in the call with Zelenskiy.
Lavrov said last week Russia will block the final declaration of the G20 summit unless it reflects Moscow’s position on Kyiv and other crises.
Diplomats said any acceptance of Moscow’s stance was highly improbable, and the summit would most likely end up issuing a non-binding or partial communique. – Agencies