The long-delayed Metrolink project connecting Dublin Airport to the city centre could end up costing more than €23 billion, according to a new estimate.
The mooted cost is almost twice the highest previous estimate for the project, which was put at between €7.16 billion and €12.25 billion in 2021.
A figure of €23.4 billion was contained in briefing material prepared for Minister for Transport Darragh O’Brien. It is based on an estimate by the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform through its major project advisory group, which was established in 2021 to review State spending on major infrastructure projects.
The briefing states that the “P95 costs” of the completed project should be €23.39 billion, less VAT. P95 means a 95 per cent certainty that the project will be completed on or under that budget.
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The briefing notes there has been a 30 per cent increase in construction costs since 2021 and it is expected the “final business cases for the major projects will reflect these increased costs”.
The current Metrolink project envisages an 18.8km line, mostly underground, incorporating 16 stations from Swords in the north to Charlemont, with stops at the airport, Dublin City University and Trinity College Dublin.
Metrolink was first proposed in November 2001 and has become a byword for how the State has been unable to deliver major infrastructure projects. The initial cost of €2.5 billion has mushroomed as the project due to delays to the project.
The Railway Order for the project was first lodged with An Bord Pleanála in September 2022 and a decision on it proceeding is expected this year, having initially been expected in 2024.
Oral hearings in relation to the project were held in February and March of last year, with residents and businesses along the route making a total of 120 submissions.
On the first day of the hearing, Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) submitted a further 200 documents in relation to the proposal. As a result, further hearings were held by An Bord Pleanála between August and October last, delaying the final planning decision further.
The last government appointed a programme director, Seán Sweeney, who commenced working on the project in September.
If planning permission is granted, TII will then put out tenders, but it will be up to the Government to approve funding for the project.
The latest estimate for the completion of Metrolink is the middle of the next decade, with a best-case scenario that the project could start next year and take eight years to finish.
The briefing documents warns that the definitive total scheme budget and target cost will only be known after procurement has begun.
The briefing document warns that the construction of major projects such as Metrolink, BusConnects and Dart+ could end up leading to “acute” funding difficulties for other State infrastructure projects.
