Wembley should hold no fears

Those dastardly Welsh. Having finally sussed that Cardiff Arms Park is Ireland's favourite ground (so much so that relocation there rather than Croke Park, Newlands or anywhere else in Ireland would almost make more sense) they go and move this Saturday's match to "neutral" Wembley.

But they can't hide away from Cardiff forever. One day Ireland will get them there again. And in the meantime, the unbeaten record stretching back to 1983 - six wins and a draw - stands intact. (Against that, Wales have won six and lost two of their last eight visits to Dublin).

It would possibly be more comforting to go to Cardiff again. Wales, for starters, are more familiar with the twin towers, having played four Tests there in the last two seasons, whereas for Ireland this will be new territory.

Nevertheless, given its vast expanse and increased capacity, Wembley ought not to be as hostile and parochial as Cardiff. To what extent the huge expatriate Irish population will have procured tickets remains to be seen, although the Irish support in the sell-out 75,000 attendance is liable to be outnumbered by about six to one.

The uniqueness of the occasion will provide a Wembley Factor all of its own. Sensibly, the Irish management are seeking to utilise this factor in a positive light. To that end, the unprecedented decision to travel over early on Thursday to familiarise themselves with an extra session inside the Twin Towers is a clever move.

Though virgin territory for Irish rugby players, the old ground has been fairly good to Irish footballers in recent times. Thus when it comes to positive mind games, how about asking someone like Liam Brady along from Arsenal (where he is youth development officer) on Thursday for an informal chat with the Irish players to reinforce the positive emerald association with Wembley, and the ground's special atmosphere?

Brady, after all, still has an FA Cup final effectively named after him, the dramatic 3-2 win over Manchester United in 1979 which he largely orchestrated; not alone did he lay on a Frank Stapleton header on the proverbial platter, he also made a weaving run which culminated in him teeing up Graham Rix for the cross from which Alan Sunderland scored the injury time winner.

If memory serves, Brady and Stapleton were two of six United Irishmen in Arsenal's ranks that day; the others being goalkeeper Pat Jennings, full-backs Pat Rice and Sammy Nelson, and centre-half David O'Leary.

Even when Man United's Kevin Moran became the first player to be sent off in an FA Cup final at Wembley against Everton in 1985, Stapleton slotted in at centre-half and Norman Whiteside delivered the winner for 10-man United.

At the conclusion of the four England-Republic of Ireland games during the Jack Charlton era, one of the abiding memories was the Irish fans saluting the 1-1 draw at Wembley in 1991 with the chant "You'll never beat the Irish".

Perhaps this is all being a bit one-eyed, not to mention green-eyed, but Wembley merely adds to the feel good factor approaching this game. It is undoubtedly a massive test match for two sides seeking to avoid a brace of opening defeats in the Five Nations, and purely from an Irish perspective it could be the turning point of the year, indeed of Warren Gatland's reign.

Purely in terms of results Gatland has been desperately unlucky so far, especially in the two contests with France. Having advised and invested (and lost) in the odds of 9 to 4 against Ireland last Saturday week, there's a danger continuing wagers could ultimately end up in a massive bet on Ireland to win the World Cup as the best means of recovering losses.

Nevertheless, the Welsh performance against South Africa in the autumn has since been put in perspective and looks more and more like something of a one-off under a new coach. Paddy Powers bookmakers have gone with the flow by installing Wales as 1 to 2 favourites, with Ireland a 13 to 8 chance. Apparently, there are some bookies in England who are placing Ireland at closer to a 2 to 1 shot. One wonders what those odds would have been had David Humphreys landed that late penalty, and given even a little bit of overdue Irish luck they do seem decidedly generous as things stand.

As regards domestic matters, it's hard not to think of last Saturday as a seismic day in the league's nine-year history, bearing in mind the unprecedented way the results swung against Shannon, in particular, and Limerick in general.

With Young Munster having left themselves too much to do already (and facing three of the top four on their run-in), the city which has accounted for all but one of the champions thus far, and three of last year's semi-finalists, is in danger of providing none this year.

This would mean Lansdowne, St Mary's, Buccaneers and Ballymena as the top four. That's possibly stretching it, and of that quartet Ballymena are beginning to look the most vulnerable.

That decision to field a largely second string XV the week before Ulster's European Cup final in the 36-0 defeat to Munsters looks more misguided, arrogant and costly by the minute. It runs the risk of undermining the existing mental falloff for their Ulster brigade, for whom AIL action must be an anti-climax, and the ensuing loss to Buccs also revives memories of their collapse last season. Furthermore, the margin of defeat could effectively equal a third point given the damage to their points differential.

That said, it eased the load for the IRFU, though the problem for Ballymena and the AIL First Division remains: how to accommodate their back matches away to Galwegians and Cork Constitution. As things stand, only the ShannonBuccs and Ballymena-Terenure matches have been refixed for the free weekend of March 27th.

There is scope to put back the final full round of first division matches of Saturday, April 3rd, to the 17th, but this runs the risk of leaving clubs idle for five weeks. The IRFU have sensibly left the ball in the clubs' court, and whatever happens the clubs must ensure against a scenario whereby a team plays an outstanding match against opponents with nothing to play for, knowing exactly what the required margin of victory is to reach, say, the top four.

And teams such as Terenure, Blackrock and Clontarf will soon have little to play for if the clubs adopt the union's proposed expansion of the top division. The aforementioned trio will assuredly vote for it, given it would effectively remove the threat of relegation, as would Galwegians, who would have a lifeline not even George Hook could manufacture.

The meeting of the clubs' working party on March 1st should clarify matters. For all their foot dragging, the Division Two clubs will surely see the benefits in having an additional tilt at promotion for the third-placed club, not to mention the relegation trapdoor being reduced from three to two. They may have misgivings, but they're not stupid.