Michael Walker: Premier League is on the way to becoming a battle of the top eight

On this weekend last August Thomas Tuchel was the manager of Chelsea. You may feel the need to re-read that.

Having won the opening Premier League game of the season the previous Saturday at Everton, who were managed by Frank Lampard, Tuchel was preparing his squad, including new faces such as Raheem Sterling and Kalidou Koulibaly, for the visit of Tottenham Hotspur to Stamford Bridge. Tottenham’s manager was Antonio Conte.

You will recall that after Harry Kane scored a 90+6-minute equaliser, Tuchel and Conte offered each other the least friendly, most tightly-gripped handshake that ended up in angry confrontation rather than sporting acknowledgment. It was chaotic. It set a Blue tone.

One week later Chelsea travelled to Elland Road and lost 3-0 to a Leeds United team, managed by Jesse Marsch, who would be relegated.

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In the 10 days that followed, having spent £164 million (€190 million) on the likes of Sterling, Chelsea went out and bought Wesley Fofana, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Cesare Casadei for another £80 million (€93 million). Another week on and Chelsea lost their opening Champions League group game in Zagreb and a few hours later Tuchel was no longer manager of Chelsea.

In came Graham Potter from Brighton, whom Chelsea paid £21 million (€24 million) in compensation. Potter was given a contract until 2027. He was praised by the club’s post-Abramovich American owners as a “football innovator”.

In his first transfer window at Chelsea – in January – Potter was supplied with more new signings, seven of them. Who would not want Enzo Fernandez or Mykhailo Mudryk? Another £285 million (€330 million) was shelled out. Long contracts. Amortisation.

[ Last season a new low for Irish players in the Premier League and cupboard still looks bare ]

Eight weeks later, Potter was relieved of his duties. In came Lampard as a caretaker – he had been shown Everton’s door.

And funnily enough, Chelsea’s form did not improve. As the squad got bigger, Chelsea’s season got smaller: they exited the FA Cup at Manchester City, the Champions League against Real Madrid and, in the Premier League, won one of their last 14 matches. Chelsea, Champions League winners in 2021 (under Tuchel), finished 12th.

This re-tracing of Chelsea’s crazy paving is done as a caution against confident prediction. If a club of Chelsea’s wealth and scale can splinter like a dropped cup, how can we try to predict a division of ever greater investment and intensity of competition?

And for all the gripes about the predictability of City winning a fourth Premier League in a row, it does feel as if there are fresh challengers around them.

Liverpool fans were upset at the lack of dramatic spending – until 9am yesterday when Moises Caicedo arrived from Brighton a for British record £110 million (€127 million). Jurgen Klopp had already addressed his midfield twelve months after everyone told him to address his midfield with Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai; Klopp called Liverpool “LFC reloaded”.

But by 2pm when Caicedo was Chelsea-bound again, it was LFC imploded. That the two face each other on Sunday is neat, or jarring, co-incidence.

The lurching unpredictability of clubs, together with the transfer window open, is why an August assessment is fraught. Liverpool could respond with a show of muscle; in fact Manchester United, Newcastle United or Aston Villa could, while City’s money pump will never run dry. Arsenal’s net spend this summer is £166 million (€192 million).

Tottenham were included in that list until another morning event yesterday – Kane going to Bayern Munich for £100 million (€116 million). Spurs look unstable. Ange Postecoglou’s task gets harder by the day.

[ Harry Kane set to sign for Bayern Munich for €110 million after agreeing terms ]

Brighton fans will note they have even more money incoming and last season finished above both Villa and Spurs. Given Roberto De Zerbi’s tactical invention and, we hope, Evan Ferguson’s progress, Albion should be in any conversation about a possible disruption to the top four. It has become a top six and is on the way to being a top eight. Were City and Pep Guardiola not so brilliant, and rich, this would be a genuinely intriguing contest.

City travelled to Burnley last night as European champions, a first. Serial winners of the Premier League, they broke through in Europe and it is unlikely that reaching the top of the mountain will give Guardiola summit fever. If one can be optimistic regarding Darwin Nunez’s second season at Liverpool (yes), then Erling Haaland deserves the benefit of doubt. He got a mere 52 goals in his first season, 36 of them in the league.

City are odds-on to regain their title and Haaland is the most obvious explanation. City have signed two Croats – Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic. At 21 the former has it all in front of him; at 29 so usually does Kovacic, one of those players who could legitimately step in for Ilkay Gundogan.

City’s margin of triumph from Arsenal was five points and 16 goals; it was one point and five goals the season before, from Liverpool.

Arsenal will take belief from their rise and in Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber, Mikel Arteta’s squad has been upgraded. They spread 55 goals around four players in the league – Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Jesus and Gabriel Martinelli. If Havertz can settle and blend, Arsenal should improve. A question is: can they get to 90 points for the first time since 2003-04, the last time they were champions?

Others require a higher leap if they are to get to City, but the challenge for Champions League places offers a more realistic trajectory. Brighton, deceptively, lost 12 games last season, and you do not foresee that re-occurring under De Zerbi. Villa need a 10-point jump and with Unai Emery having had a first pre-season, they appear dangerous. Pau Torres from Villareal is an eye-catching signing.

This time last year, a la Tuchel at Chelsea, Steven Gerrard was manager of Villa. Scott Parker was at Bournemouth. Bruno Lage was at Wolves – until November. When Lage departed, in came Julen Lopetegui to do a fine job; but he left on Wednesday, five days before Wolves begin their season at Old Trafford. Gary O’Neil, who stepped in for Parker when he was moved aside by Bournemouth, is now at Wolves.

It’s head-spinning turnover, as if flux is part of Premier League marketing.

And it returns us to Chelsea. Mauricio Pochettino has arrived at the Bridge, the fifth “permanent” appointment in five years. Pochettino has dispensed with many previous signings and has recruited some – Caicedo was a plan, too, even yesterday.

Chelsea have no European football. They can focus on domesticity. The last time this was the scenario – in the disarray following Jose Mourinho’s 2015-16, when Chelsea finished 10th and missed out in Europe – a new man came in. It was Antonio Conte and Chelsea shook hands with the Premier League trophy.

That, by the way, is an observation.