The revolution according to Gregor Townsend, while based in reality, has heretofore been a homely affair.
Scotland's Six Nations record outside Murrayfield remains abysmal.
Four of their six away wins since Italy’s addition in 2000 have occurred in Rome. The Scots beat Wales in Cardiff 16 years ago and then there was the last rugby match in Croke Park, where they also triumphed.
History filed this away as a self-inflicted Irish wound, a Triple Crown fumbled by Grand Slam heroes. Despite victory in Twickenham, the defending champions veered off the boil in 2010 with coach Declan Kidney either playing Johnny Sexton off Ronan O’Gara or simply not being able to decide which man was his starting outhalf.
"I remember the game for one moment," said Sexton in No Borders, Tom English's biographical journey through Irish rugby.
“We were awarded a kickable penalty and Declan was getting ready to make a substitution – me off and Rog on. Rog was on the touchline, I nailed the kick and that was a big moment in my career. I’d proven, with Rog standing there, that I had the balls to land a penalty like that.”
O'Gara also kicked two goals to level matters at 20-20 before a disastrous finale. On 77 minutes Dan Parks sprayed a speculative ball into the Ireland 22. Rob Kearney was snaffled by two Scottish backs with Tommy Bowe unable to budge Nick De Luca, prompting referee Jonathan Kaplan to offer Parks a 79th minute left touchline kick for glory.
That’s about it for Scottish returns of genuine substance outside Edinburgh.
November saw a potential watershed moment, they almost beat the All Blacks, before repeating last summer’s win over the Wallabies in Sydney.
‘Beware the dark horses’ was the popular theory until a starkly understrength Wales racked up 34 points before Townsend’s men found their straps.
“We’ve got our issues to deal with about being better away from home and that’s going to be our focus,” said Townsend, in an attempt to control feelings of euphoria after beating England. “We have to show a truer picture of what we’re about when we play away from home.”
Scotland captain John Barclay was technically outstanding over English ball last month. Part of the "Killer B's" backrow – along with Kelly Brown and John Beattie – that dominated in Croke Park (he's the only Scottish survivor whereas veteran versions of Sexton, Rory Best, Cian Healy, Keith Earls and Kearney remain), Barclay strives to keep on-message.
Massive battle
“There’s another massive battle to come in Dublin, a chance to correct our away form that must improve dramatically if we’re to take our progression to the next level,” he said in his BBC column. “That’s the big challenge for this team.”
The current Scottish problem is consistency. Last year Ireland, sans Sexton, were ripped apart by Stuart Hogg only for Scotland to lose in Paris and get hammered 61-21 in Twickenham when Jonathan Joseph was invited to glide through midfield unhindered.
Schmidt refuses to blame this repetitive flaw on his "world class" defence coach Andy Farrell, instead fingering player errors on the field. Looking back on Hogg's first try last season, when a bouncing pass by Finn Russell beat the shooting-up Garry Ringrose, the Ireland coach noted: "At that stage Garry was quite young in his test career. He has 11 Tests now so he was still learning and even in that second half they didn't get the same opportunities so we've got to make sure that we start like we did in the second half."
Basically, Hogg and Russell must be denied any scope to construct a 21-5 head start.
This time Scotland come to Dublin having recovered from the Welsh pounding to squeeze past France and regain the Calcutta Cup. Against England Russell threw long, looping passes to meet the flawless timing of Huw Jones who scored a try comparable to Brian O’Driscoll’s for the Lions against Australia in 2001.
“Got to make the most of the high and we will tonight,” smiled Russell after the England win. And they did; instagram captured the nightclub revelry. No harm done but Townsend’s Scots conduct business differently to Joe Schmidt’s Irish bubble.
"Ireland are not particularly entertaining," Jim Telfer, the legendary Lions forwards coach, told The Scotsman. "They are like a method actor rather than doing it with inspiration. They are very professional, they are very good at what they do but they were lucky against Wales in some respects.
“They have similarities in that their back row is very similar to our back row. Dan Leavy has come through the system, he knows what he is doing. It could be a battle of the breakdown.”
The game appears balanced upon Leavy, Peter O’Mahony and CJ Stander’s direct conflict with English conquerors Hamish Watson, Ryan Wilson and Barclay.
“We felt the breakdown was an area we could have opportunities for John, Hamish and other guys if England were only going to put one guy in [to rucks] or if they weren’t accurate we were going to get rewards,” said Townsend. “John was a big part of that.”
English players were relieved of possession 13 times, with Barclay’s tackle of George Ford – his rapid return to feet, arms extended for the referee, and Chris Robshaw’s inability to loosen his vice-grip – is already a textbook example of how rugby should be played in 2018.
Opposition ball
“Listen, it’s pretty brutal in there,” said Barclay. “As soon as you get hands on opposition ball at the breakdown, then you’re waiting to be steamrollered. You know that one, two, three guys who usually have a good run up on you are going to try to obliterate you. Because of this, the response from your team-mates is normally fairly emphatic when you win the ball.”
In the present tense, this match matters enormously but the result can alter or maintain the perception of how the opening Pool A meeting in Yokohama on September 22nd, 2019 will play out.
We still have to prove ourselves away from home
More than anything, Scotland need to win a significant Test match in a foreign city. They also need to win three Six Nations games in succession. Both milestones can be reached in Dublin.
“I am a wee bit worried we have a fortress at home and the players play to that but we still have to prove ourselves away from home,” Telfer added. “I think we are capable of beating Ireland but we need to get into our game quickly and not be afraid of playing the game we want to play.”
