The cloud which hangs over the Heineken Cup makes for a slightly debilitating backdrop to the 19th edition of the best club tournament in the world.
As things stand none of the participants know whether there will be another Heineken Cup, much less whether winning it will ensure qualification for anything next season or merely ensure an immortal place in rugby history.
The Bath owner, multi-millionaire businessman Bruce Craig, and a prime agitator in the Anglo-French alliance as vice-President of PRL (Premiership Rugby), told the Sud Ouest newspaper earlier this week that their proposed breakaway competition, the Rugby Champions Cup, is the only solution to the current impasse and maintained that it would be ratified for next season as early as next month.
“There are meetings and positive developments,” he was quoted as saying. “People are beginning to understand that the Rugby Champions Cup is the only solution to the crisis. I think we will reach an agreement before the start of international matches in November.”
To join
Craig also claimed that the RFU are siding with Premiership Rugby and that the Welsh regions are keen to join, but will be prevented by their Union from doing so. Whether the regions are, or not, is questionable, but the Welsh RFU CEO Roger Lewis certainly did made it clear over the weekend that the regions must sign a new participation agreement for next season by this December or kiss goodbye to their Union's funding and thus face oblivion. It is also clear that the French Federation and the Celtic and Italian unions are not for blinking.
However, the RFU CEO Ian Ritchie is busily endeavouring to broker a deal between all parties concerned, with the help of the mediator, Graeme Mew, appointed by ERC for mediation talks scheduled for October 23rd.
There remains a hope that two revised, pan-European tournaments might yet materialize from the wreckage, whether under the auspices of the ERC or not, or with a trimmed down ERC operation relocating from its Dublin base (Geneva has been mentioned in dispatches).
Yet whether the issues of financial distribution, qualification and the overseeing body can be resolved, there remains one enormous stumbling block, namely the conflicting television deals which the ERC and Premiership Rugby have signed with Sky and BT, rivals in a huge broadband war in mainland Britain.
Hammer out
Rumours have gathered momentum that attempts are being made to hammer out a deal involving both Sky and BT, but Sky must feel hugely embittered by Premiership Rugby after years of ploughing millions into the English club game and selling its product, never mind the prospect of sleeping with the enemy.
It’s hard to see how that one can be resolved, but if there is to be a Heineken Cup in a revised format, or an alternative pan-European competition, the irony of next Friday’s opening salvos in this season’s tournament are delicious.
Connacht host loud, brash Saracens, whose South African backers and chairman Nigel Wray are other leading figures in the Anglo-French alliance.
If Wray and Saracens have their way, only the top six from the Rabo Pro12 would qualify for their atom-splitting new tournament, purging the Heineken Cup or its putative replacement of teams like Connacht, whom they clearly see as a blight on their landscape.
Connacht are only dining at European rugby's top table for the third year running thanks to Leinster backing up two Heineken Cup triumphs with last May's Amlin Challenge Cup success. Dismayed by the pesky Irish having the nerve to win either tournament, Wray and his Anglo-French cohorts complain long and hard about the way leading Celtic sides can afford to rest leading players from Pro12 matches to focus their attentions on European games.
Last weekend, Munster and Leinster were going hammer and tongs at each other, and both Connacht and Ulster were also fielding full-strength sides in Wales and Italy. Meantime, Saracens were resting 11 of the side that had beaten Harlequins a week before for their game at home to Wasps, which didn't stop them maintaining their record atop the Premiership with five wins from five, while keeping many of their front-liners fresh for Europe.
And in yet another irony Saracens, who added both more muscle and more variation to their crash-bang-wallop brand of rugby, look like potentially prime beneficiaries of the flawed tournament structure in that they are strongly fancied to advance from a group which also includes Zebre and Toulouse.
Familiar foes
Presuming one or both of Saracens or Toulouse advance, they will be most likely joined by some familiar foes in the latter stages. Along with Saracens, a re-energised Northampton are the form team in England, albeit with familiar doubts about their squad strength and staying power.
They let Leicester off the hook in a throbbing East Midlands derby last weekend at Welford Road, when the Tigers’ squad strength and spirit was tested to the full. But history has shown us that Leicester, last season’s English champions and serial Premiership finalists, are old dogs for the long haul, and in France the same can be said of Toulouse.
Cowed by a pool exit last season and limp semi-final defeat domestically, Guy Noves has not resorted to wild changes in personnel and like Leicester, the four-times H Cup winners and 19-times French champions have trophy-hunting in their DNA.
With their limitless resources holders Toulon should be there or thereabouts again both domestically and in Europe, though if they were then faced with a choice, one ventures they’d prioritise a first Bouclier since 1992. No-one has served their dues more than Clermont. But to Clermont’s list of stars however, can be added another entry to their litany of scars, namely the final they should have won against Toulon in the Aviva Stadium.
Furthermore, while no-one would ever call Vern Cotter a lame duck, the fall-out of last season’s latest implosion and his impending end-of-season departure to Scotland do not bode well.
If there is to be a dark horse contender emerging from the pack it could be Montpellier. They are France’s form team, and Fabien Galthie and co are apparently up for the H Cup.
Seventh trophy
Standing in the way of the Anglo-French hegemony, as ever, are the Irish, also six-time winners. A seventh trophy would be sweeter than ever, but there is no longer a Johnny Sexton, Ronan O'Gara or David Humphreys-type figure to guide any of them over the winning line, as there has been for the previous half-dozen triumphs.
Last Saturday in Thomond was a little deflating, but one can never discount the heroic deeds which the Heineken Cup inspires hereabouts. Admittedly, Ulster have a brute of a draw, and Leinster’s is not much better, which may mean Munster again carrying the flag longest.
As for a winner, semi-finalists two years ago, runners-up last year, and with Julien Bonnaire, Aurelien Rougerie galvanising them for one last go, no squad is more motivated, or more talented, than Clermont.
