Andy Goode's missed drop goal with the last kick of the game in the 20-20 draw at home to Leinster has, effectively, condemned Wasps to probably the most difficult knock-out tie European rugby can currently throw up.
In winning back-to-back European Cups, Toulon have won six knock-out matches in a row, or 12 of their last 13 games in this competition.
Viewed in another light, Toulon became the first club since Toulouse in the formative years of this tournament to complete a European/Top 14 double; a feat which Guy Novès once called impossible. To achieve this, therefore, they had to win five knock-out matches in a row last season.
Of course, a club backed by the seemingly bottomless pockets of president Mourad Boudjellal is better equipped than most to achieve this feat, and in theory the change of format – compressing the three knock-out rounds into fortnightly weekends – could facilitate Toulon's two-fronted ambitions even more.
In response to last week's surprise 34-24 defeat at home to Toulouse, Bernard Laporte has recalled Delon Armitage to fullback (with Drew Mitchell moving to the wing) as well as loosehead Alexandre Menini, lock Bakkies Botha and flanker Mamuka Gorgodze.
Ominously for Wasps, Toulon tend to react angrily to setbacks, especially at the Stade Félix Mayol., and the lift from their move to Coventry appears to have ebbed for Wasps, who have won only once away from home this season and shipped a half-century in Northampton last weekend.
Even allowing for their unparalleled depth, this is a slightly depowered-looking Toulon with no Leigh Halfpenny, Bryan Habana or Matt Giteau in their starting line-up, although Giteau is at least on the bench.
In any event, they should still have enough firepower to win a seventh successive European Cup knock-out match and thereby earn an eighth a fortnight hence at the Stade Vélodrome in Marseilles.
