Win at the Ricoh Arena on Saturday and Leinster will have survived the worst plague of injuries in their history.
They have reached the juncture they crave in European competition. On Saturday at 1pm they field a team, albeit devoid of Cian Healy and Sean O'Brien, and the suspended Jack McGrath, something close to full strength.
Despite falling below 70 per cent player availability in late 2014, their destiny somehow remains in their own hands.
Victory over Wasps and a home quarter-final in the Champions Cup is guaranteed.
That’s the only marker to measure success in Northern Hemisphere club rugby.
“The ripple effect of 20 blokes injured, most of them long-term, in relation to the bodies you have in your environment and the ability to train at a high level and put out a team with a game plan capable of playing good teams – it all changes,” said Matt O’Connor of the campaign to date.
“That was the reality of it. Those are the facts. The guys who played in Europe against Wasps and Castres put us in this position. We need to repay that and deliver on our end.”
Recovery is evident in the return of Test wingers – Fergus McFadden and Dave Kearney – or young backrowers so physically imposing that Shane Jennings couldn't make the bench against Castres. Then there's a front row that didn't require Mike Ross; Luke Fitzgerald wearing 13 on his back for a string of matches; Seán Cronin and Richardt Strauss back jostling with each other for the hooker berth.
Chronic problems
More than less, it’s a functioning, familiar-looking Leinster again.
Ulster are still experiencing chronic problems with Paddy Jackson, Stuart Olding and Dan Tuohy added to their soaring wounded list. They were mauled to the tune of 60-22 in Toulon last weekend. The power and size of the wealthiest European clubs seems like the obvious factor.
"It was the worst two or three months I can remember over the last five or six years," said Dan Tobin, Leinster's head of fitness. "This season we did dip below 70 per cent of players available but it's back up to 90 per cent now. Still, Cian and Seán are not available. You are not really happy until those guys are back. But they are getting there."
Currently, Leinster employ two rehabilitation coaches, Diarmuid Brennan with the senior squad and Fearghal Kerin with the Academy, along with three doctors, three physiotherapists and two masseurs.
In short, it’s an ultra-professional backroom team.
“There was a lot of soul searching,” Tobin continued. “We audited ourselves – the strength and conditioning and physio departments – with a lot of honestly back and forth to try and see where the holes were that needed to be filled.
“There were little 10 per centers in a lot of areas that probably contributed to some of it.
“But, that said, you get a few months down the line and we have four players out injured. If we get through this weekend okay we could have a full deck of fit players. And the structures are pretty much the same.”
So, is it more a reflection of rugby in general rather than some internal fault with Leinster?
“Possibly,” Tobin replied. “We weren’t happy with the soft tissue injuries we had.”
It’s like when any rut sets in. All of a sudden every player able to train is forced to work harder, to play for longer to ensure the club’s primary function, winning games, continues to be fulfilled.
That meant the injury count inevitably rose with young players like Ed Byrne (cruciate tear) and even Dominic Ryan (concussion) picking up knocks arguably caused by increased exposure.
On it went.
“It almost became a downward spiral until we went, ‘We just need to get some guys back here.’ It was a really tough spell for the backroom staff but, to be fair, I thought we reacted well to it.
Risk factors
“We tried to find solutions,” Tobin explained. “That drove us on to make sure it doesn’t happen again. We profiled the squad better to know what players’ risk factors (to certain injury) are.”
Next time they will be better prepared to weather such a storm.
“It’s given us a real clarity of roles. It hurt badly because it is something that we always took pride in; that we look after our players, that we had developed systems within the club to manage players better than most other clubs.”
From Sunday evening the same problem gets passed over to the Ireland camp in Carton House.
