Pool 3: Leicester v Ulster
Welford Road, Saturday 7.45pm, BT Sport
Scroll down for the verdict but separating this pair demands cliché. Whoever turns up on the day. It’s about winning the battle up front.
Only a hair’s breadth between them (the bookmakers interpret that as Leicester being three points the better outfit).
So much turmoil in either club makes it difficult to decide who will challenge Toulon in what will require a great escape from Pool Three.
The locals will be baying for blood. 24,000 mostly east midlanders will be stamping their feet, rattling the old wooden stand as ‘Cockers Cage’ is padlocked come this night kick-off. Think Thomond Park or Stade Marcel Michelin.
Three points
That’s certainly worth three points, usually seven. Ulster know all this. They came here last season and stood tall. The major difference from then to now is three names: Johann Muller, John Afoa and Ruan Pienaar. Retired, departed, injured.
Anthony Trimble is also wounded but Craig Gilroy grabbed a brilliant try off the bench against Glasgow last week, cleverly created by Pienaar’s understudy Paul Marshall.
Paddy Jackson must carry the match-winning mantle if Ulster are to prevail. The 22-year -old craves the responsibility so Les Kiss and Neil Doak handpicked him over Ian Humphreys. The former Tiger doesn't even make the bench as Stuart Olding provides cover at outhalf, inside centre and fullback.
Not good news for Luke Marshall as he slips down the pecking order – lining out for the Ravens against Yorkshire this afternoon in Belfast – at the worst possible time.
Stuart McCloskey is to blame. The imposing former Bangor Grammar School man is ruining some best laid plans by Joe Schmidt. In a good way.
“He’s a big, strong boy but his decision-making and handling abilities are right up there with anyone,” said Tommy Bowe. “I think he’s a player who I wouldn’t be at all surprised could be up there for an opportunity to wear the green jersey.”
Some compliment.
Big game
Jared Payne also needs a big game in the 13 jersey to fend off fellow November candidates Gordon D'Arcy and Robbie Henshaw. Manu Tuilagi will test this out.
Along with Marcos Ayerza’s return from Argentina, Tuilagi’s fitness was of enormous benefit as the Tigers ended a three-game losing streak against Harlequins last week.
And yet, Richard Cockerill’s squad remains decimated by injury. Tom Croft recently joined fellow Lions Dan Cole and Geoff Parling in the infirmary. The front row stock is worryingly low with Tom Youngs, Alex Corbisero and Logov’i Mulipola also crocked.
“We’re missing eight or nine international front rows and locks,” said assistant coach Geordan Murphy, with centre Anthony Allen and former Leinster winger Niall Morris also on this lengthy list.
Still, All Black Brad Thorn will bring power and guarantee a competitive scrum.
All this news gives Ulster a genuine chance. The brain can compute an Ulster victory but having witnessed a packed Welford Road on big match days, one is tempted to go with the team led out by the irrepressible Ben Youngs.
Tigers will relish this battle. No Pienaar this time but Ulster are moving away from foreign dependence. Here’s when they must prove as much. By a hair’s breadth.
LEICESTER TIGERS: M Tait; B Scully, M Tuilagi, O Williams, V Goneva; F Burns, B Youngs (capt); M Ayerza, L Ghiraldini, F Balmain; B Thorn, G Kitchener; J Gibson, J Salvi, J Crane. Replacements: H Thacker, M Rizzo, T Pasquali, S de Chaves, R Barbieri, D Mele, S Harrison, M Benjamin.
ULSTER: L Ludik; T Bowe, J Payne, S McCloskey, C Gilroy; P Jackson, P Marshall; A Warwick, R Best (capt), W Herbst, L Stevenson, F vd Merwe, R Diack, C Henry, N Williams. Replacements: R Herring, C Black, D Fitzpatrick, C Ross, R Wilson, M Heaney, S Olding, D Cave.
Referee: R Poite (France).
Form guide: Leicester – LLW.
Ulster – LWW.
Previous meetings: Leicester 19-22 Ulster (January 2014); Ulster 22-16 Leicester (October 2013); Ulster 41-7 Leicester (January 2012).
Betting: Leicester (-3) 10/11, Ulster (+3) 10/11. Draw Leicester (-3) 19/1.
Verdict: Ulster
