European Champions Cup: Irish goose could be cooked before Christmas as heat comes on

It's not unusual for Leinster, Munster and Ulster to have lost a match each by the half-way point in the pool stages of Europe's premier rugby competition. It happened four seasons ago and Leinster and Ulster still progressed to the quarter-finals, and neither did it stop Leinster and Munster advancing five seasons ago. Yet somehow the threat of no Irish team in the knock-out stages for the first time in 17 seasons seems more real than ever.

For starters, both Munster – of all teams – and Ulster have suffered home defeats to the heavyweight French duo of Clermont and Toulon. There is no shame in that, but it has left both seriously imperilled, and were Leinster to lose at home to Harlequins on Saturday night at the Aviva, then the Irish goose could look a little cooked before Christmas.

Three seasons ago, Clermont lost to a vintage Leinster team featuring Johnny Sexton, Brian O'Driscoll and Isa Nacewa, and coached by Joe Schmidt, in a Bordeaux semi-final that came down to Gordon D'Arcy's tackle knocking the ball from Wesley Fofana's grasp over the line.

Since then, Clermont have beaten Leinster home and away, and now Munster home and away. In the last two seasons, Toulon have beaten Leinster and Munster at home, and Ulster in Ravenhill. In all but two of those seven successive defeats to the French big two, the Irish sides finished within a score yet, there is undeniably a trend here.

Far from looking energised after the autumn tests and the ensuing weekend off, the province’s leading lights looked tired, and the performances had nothing like the post-November feel-good factor of recent seasons. Maybe it further highlights the magnitude of Ireland’s November achievements under Schmidt.

Neither Munster nor Leinster looked like they could muster a try-scoring chance, much less a try, and both conceded two. Each managed to lose by seven points or less and so earn a losing bonus point. Each had set-piece malfunctions – Munster more so in the lineout, Leinster in the scrum – and those malfunctions had a profound effect.

Opposing number eights

The opposing number eights,

Fritz Lee

and

Nick Easter

, were both chosen as man of the match; each scored a try, with Lee making 10 carries and 13 tackles, and Easter 16 carries and 13 tackles. Leinster and Munster now probably have to win to have any chance of progressing.

The benchmarks for qualification may yet come down, but not only has no team ever progressed after losing their opening two matches, but no team has ever reached the quarter-final stages after losing the back-to-back matches. While Munster face the most daunting task in Clermont on Sunday, Leinster had better get their act together.

Other results didn’t go the way of Munster or Leinster either, given Saracens won in Sale and Wasps had a bonus-point win away to a disinterested Castres.

The same could be said for Ulster, with Leicester beating Toulon to leave Neil Doak’s men third in pool three. Ulster have to win in Llanelli next Sunday to stay alive, but could be down a few more players after the carnage of last Saturday night, and even then will most probably have to repeat the trick away to Toulon.

Ulster look to have more try-scoring creativity, but less power up front. Munster and Leinster have more power but have been struggling to get over the whitewash. Leinster have a lot of room for improvement, starting with their scrum and lineout, and with thinnish resources Quins have doubts about Joe Marler and Nick Evans. Leinster have their injury woes too but they still had 11 of Ireland’s 23 that beat Australia. They have better players than Harlequins.

Munster have never had the backline firepower that Leinster or latterly Ulster have possessed, and with no marquee back from New Zealand, such as Doug Howlett, Christian Cullen, Rua Tipoki, Lifeimi Mafi or Casey Laulala, that remains so.

Point of attack

Their scope for improvement is not the same, although they could make their lineout more accurate, employ more pick-and-go as well as inside passes to vary the point of attack, and take their three points when on offer.

Opting for a close-range lineout approaching half-time was very brave, but had Munster made it 16-9 at the interval that would have been some result. Instead, they spent the entire third quarter getting there, when that might have been a kick to make it 16-12 on the hour, thus creating the option of going for the posts in the 76th minute.

The other key difference is that Clermont are as potent and hungry as ever. The arrival of Jonno Gibbes has refreshed their coaching set-up, while Camille Lopez seems to have resolved their outhalf issue.

There were signs that Clermont’s long winning run at Stade Marcel Michelin was beginning to weigh them down last season before Castres ended that 77-match-winning streak in ‘le barrage’, and Montpellier won there in September. But even so, in Clermont’s last 85 matches at the Stade Michelin, they have won 83 and lost two.

Of course, we know Munster will up their intensity even further. It's classic Stand Up and Fight territory. And who knows, a bonus point could yet afford them a route into the last eight, albeit by having to beat Saracens in the all-weather Allianz Park. Next Sunday will be like a 15-round heavyweight fight. And Munster start on the ropes. gthornley@irishtimes.com