Six Nations: Scotland v Ireland,
Murrayfield, Sunday,
3pm – Live on RTÉ 2 and UTV
It wasn’t always like this. Ireland lording it over Scotland was never quite like this. For Scottish rugby, 10 successive defeats to Ireland must stick in their craw. As kick-off nears at a long sold-out Murrayfield and Flower of Scotland reverberates around the ground, Ireland will not encounter a team more desperate and motivated to beat them now.
Heck, even more than they want to beat England. This is supposed to be a Scottish golden age. In Finn Russell, they have a generational playmaker, but one who is no longer a spring chicken, and his first Test duel with a similarly inventive, cool and stylish young pretender in Sam Prendergast will be utterly compelling viewing.
Scotland have an array of game-breaking backs who can avail of Russell’s ability to put them into space or create something out of nothing themselves. Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe are Scotland’s two most prolific try scorers of all time, and along with last week’s hat-trick hero Huw Jones, this trio have a whopping 81 Test tries between them.
True, Sione Tuipulotu is a big loss but based on last week’s evidence when Tom Jordan was sprung from the bench, he will add more creativity to their potent running game
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In any event, England pulled the Irish defence out of shape with their counterattacking last week and created holes in ultimately scoring three tries. Ireland will need to be more switched on against this dangerous Scottish team.
Although Ireland have dominated the fixture like never before by winning the last 10 clashes, and have won on their last three visits to Edinburgh, more often than not Ireland travel over as favourites and more often than not, either fail or struggle to justify the tag.
Ireland have had three one-score wins and suffered four defeats in their last four visits to Murrayfield. Overconfidence never sits well with Ireland in this fixture and those who ignore the lessons of history are apt to repeat them.
Simon Easterby was one of the five new caps in that transformative 44-22 win over Scotland in the 2000 Six Nations at the old Lansdowne Road, at which point in history Scotland led the head-to-head by 62 wins to 50. But starting that day, Ireland have won 21 of the last 25 meetings in the Six Nations.
Even so, the Irish interim head coach was also part of the team beaten 32-10 on his first visit to Murrayfield in the foot-and-mouth rearranged game in September 2001. It was Ireland’s only defeat of that championship.
“There wasn’t much expectation around Scotland at the time and we turned up and were sent very clearly back with our tails between our legs.
“They’ve grown under Gregor [Townsend] over the last three or four years to a team that have produced unbelievable performances. They’ve probably disappointed in the consistency of their performances over a period of time but they are capable of playing brilliantly and beating anyone on their day, so we’re fully aware of that.
“I don’t think we go in there necessarily as favourites, it’s finely balanced I’d say in terms of favourites and underdogs.
“We just know we have to be better than we were last weekend in a lot of areas because of the threats that they have in their team and their ability in particular to play attacking rugby, and also the way they can stop teams playing as well.”
Easterby’s selection of Peter O’Mahony as blindside flanker and Robbie Henshaw alongside Bundee Aki, with Ryan Baird and Garry Ringrose dropping to the bench, is surprising. And Iain Henderson’s omission means no Ulster player in the matchday squad.
The interim head coach said that they had both selections in mind before the win over England. One ventures that O’Mahony is recalled for his voice, leadership, smarts and organisational skills, especially around lineout/maul defence and attack.
“He clearly loves being around the group, he loves wearing an Irish jersey,” said Easterby of O’Mahony, and joked that being around camp makes the 35-year-old “feel a little bit younger than he is”.
Also noting O’Mahony’s impact on the group, Easterby added: “That for me has been one of his biggest strengths, how over a period of time he’s cut the bullshit and just gone, ‘This is what I am, I’m going to be myself and I’m going to add as much as I can to this group’.”
“And I think over the last four or five years we’ve seen the best of him, beyond his 30 years plus, we’ve probably seen the best of Pete.”
Divvying out the minutes between the three centres of excellence also has merit, albeit it has left Brian O’Driscoll “confused”. Maybe Ringrose has an issue of some kind or Easterby and Co are also mindful of not leaving the outside edges too exposed to a Scottish team who like to go there.
Yet there just seems a better attacking and defensive balance when Ringrose is there, and hence the Aki-Ringrose combination has been Ireland’s preferred choice since the former made his debut in November 2017; last week being their 27th Test start together. Then again, Aki-Henshaw will be starting their 23rd Test together, if one includes the Lions series decider in South Africa four years ago.
Easterby also maintained this did not signal a narrower approach than last week.
“Robbie’s distribution skills are excellent and he has the ability to put the ball into space. I think at times we didn’t always attack the right space but we had one-on-one individuals that did a brilliant job,” he added, interestingly.
“We need to make sure that we’ve got a balance between putting the ball to width but also striking the teams who have space in the middle. And I think that’s kind of a good balance that we’ve got this weekend in the midfield to do that.”
This looks like a cup side for an all-Celtic tie, one designed to subdue Scottish fervour by imposing their set-piece, catch-and-drive and strong carrying game.
Given any early encouragement, Scottish belief that this can be the day to end their Irish curse will soar, whereas the quicker those notions are dispelled then the all-too-familiar doubts may resurface.
This Scottish team is probably too good, and will be too fired up, to go quietly into the night. Ireland may well have to suffer. But, if all else fails, that coiled Irish bench is equipped to raise the intensity and the ante like few others.
IRELAND: Hugo Keenan; Mack Hansen, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Rónan Kelleher, Finlay Bealham; James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne; Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.
Replacements: Dan Sheehan, Cian Healy, Thomas Clarkson, Ryan Baird, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley, Garry Ringrose.
SCOTLAND: Blair Kinghorn; Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Tom Jordan, Duhan van der Merwe; Finn Russell (co-capt), Ben White; Rory Sutherland, Dave Cherry, Zander Fagerson; Jonny Gray, Grant Gilchrist; Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge (co-captain), Jack Dempsey.
Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Pierre Schoeman, Will Hurd, Sam Skinner, Gregor Brown, Jamie Ritchie, Jamie Dobie, Stafford McDowall
Referee: James Doleman (NZR)
Assistant Referees: Ben O’Keeffe (NZ), Pierre Brousset (Fra)
TMO: Richard Kelly (NZ)
FPRO: Andrew Jackson (Eng)
Overall head-to-head: Played 142. Scotland 66 wins, Ireland 71 wins, 5 draws.
Last five meetings – 2024: Ireland 17 Scotland 13; 2023: Scotland 7 Ireland 22-7. 2022: Ireland 26 Scotland 5; 2021: Scotland 24 Ireland 27; 2020: Ireland 31 Scotland 16.
Betting: 11-5 Scotland, 20-1 Draw, 2-5 Ireland. Handicap odds: Scotland +6pts.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
