In many ways, it was a jarring sight. With less than a minute on the clock last week in Thomond Park, Leinster first got hold of the ball via a lineout on their own 10-metre line. While playing inside their own half, they were not pinned close to their own line.
Instead of a strike move filled with deceptive running lines, Sam Prendergast opted to immediately kick high into the Limerick night. This pre-plannedGarryowen was no aberration. Later in the game, Leinster employed a similar tactic in even better attacking situations further up the pitch.
In the same fixture, Leinster dominated Munster’s scrum to the tune of multiple penalties. This after new tighthead Rabah Slimani did a job on Ulster’s scrum earlier this season. In Thomond Park, Leinster played around with the use of their bench, scripting a brief, 22-minute start for loosehead Jack Boyle. Add this tinkering to a strong set-piece and kicking game, not to mention a South African style defence, and plenty are reaching for the same conclusion: under Jacques Nienaber, we are witnessing the Springbok-ification of Leinster.
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To what extent have Leinster actually changed, or are we simply reaching for an overly simple narrative, given Nienaber’s presence?
On the defensive side, Leinster undoubtedly resemble the Springboks. Plenty of column inches have already been dedicated to Leinster rising up the rankings of teams with the fastest line speed, while a more disruptive attitude to the defensive breakdown is clear to see.
Leinster’s tackle success rate this season, 85.3 per cent, is only the 21st best figure of the 40 top flight European clubs. During last year’s World Cup, South Africa’s figure of 85.1 per cent had them ranked 11th of 20 teams. Missed tackles are an acceptable consequence of charging off the line.
In terms of the breakdown, according to Opta, two Leinster backrows rank among European rugby’s best disruptors. Of those who have hit at least 30 defensive rucks this season, Jack Conan (29 per cent) and Caelan Doris (26.7 per cent) rank in the top five for how often they slow down opposition ball.
These sorts of numbers would not look out of place in a South African forward pack. During last year’s World Cup, Nienaber’s last set of fixtures with his home nation, Kwagga Smith had an astonishing 41.9 per cent effectiveness rate at defensive rucks. Deon Fourie, the backrow converted into a hooker because of his strength in contact, was at 18.4 per cent. Eben Etzebeth and Jasper Wiese were both north of 20 per cent.
For all the underlying stats, though, the most important number is on the scoreboard. Even there, the resemblance is uncanny. This season, Leinster have conceded an average of just under 12 points per game. South Africa allowed 12.5 during their most recent World Cup run.
What then of the attack? With all this kicking, scrum dominance and general forward power, has the team which once featured names such as O’Driscoll, D’Arcy, Contepomi, Horgan and Hickie abandoned its historical flair? Not to the extent some would have you believe.
A narrative has emerged that when Stuart Lancaster was running the Leinster attack they focused more on an intricate phase play which cut sides open. Now, Leinster are happier to play without the ball – in a similar way to which South Africa backed their defence to win a World Cup title.
The numbers don’t back this theory up entirely. Take the 2022-23 season, Lancaster’s last at the province. Then, Leinster averaged 119 carries, 25 kicks and 6.25 line-breaks per game. So far this season, those same stats read 117 carries, 26 kicks and 5.9 line-breaks. Leinster still want to play with the ball.
What might well have changed, though, is opposition attitudes towards Leinster’s possession. With a more disruptive, and therefore more effective defence, starving their attack is no longer the kryptonite it perhaps once was.
In the 2022 and 2023 Champions Cup finals, La Rochelle simply did not allow Leinster to have the ball. In 2022, Ronan O’Gara’s side made 144 carries to Leinster’s 76, limiting the province to just 39 per cent possession. In 2023, La Rochelle had 138 carries to Leinster’s 72. In both games, the defensive workload ultimately caught up with Leo Cullen’s side.
Contrast this to South Africa during last year’s World Cup. Five times they played against Tier One nations. In four of those games, they made more tackles than carries. They still won all bar one game.
Perhaps armed with this new defensive attitude and a few bigger bodies in the likes of Jordie Barrett and RG Snyman, Leinster are better equipped to defend against the bigger French teams. But they still want the ball. Even when kicking featured so heavily in their game plan last week, they had more possession than Munster.
If becoming more comfortable without the ball is a feature of their game, however overblown, then Leinster still need to be more effective when they do attack. All while limiting what the opposition does with their greater share of possession.
So far this season, Leinster rank seventh of 40 European clubs for attacking entries into the 22 (9.6 per match). They are in the same position for how often these entries lead to a try (44.1 per cent).
In defence, they give up the third-fewest 22 entries per match (6.9). They are the second-best side in Europe at limiting the opposition inside the 22, allowing a try just 24.2 per cent of the time.
Compare this to Nienaber’s Springboks who, while not necessarily an efficient side inside the opposition’s 22, were ruthless when defending close to their own line. Again, using their five World Cup games against Tier One nations last year, only once did their points per 22 visit allowed figure exceed points per 22 visit scored.
In last year’s European final defeat to Toulouse, attacking efficiency was arguably the biggest issue which cost Leinster the game. Unlike the La Rochelle finals, Leinster had significantly more possession than Toulouse (59 per cent vs 41). Despite entering the 22 on 16 occasions, they only came away with one point per entry. Toulouse crossed the 22 six times, leaving with 2.1 points per entry.
In a crude sense, one can point to diversifying a game plan, becoming more comfortable without the ball and more efficient with it, as utilising the strengths of Nienaber’s South Africa. It could also be said that this is simply a case of developing a more rounded side.
The ‘Boks themselves have also diversified their game plan since the World Cup, bringing in attack coach Tony Brown to add a greater focus to that aspect of their game. They even flirted with a more expansive attack in the early stages of that last World Cup. In their pool stage defeat to Ireland, they played wide (30-plus metres) from the ruck 20 per cent of the time. In the later knockouts, though, that figure plummeted to 3 per cent against France, 0 per cent against England and 11 per cent against New Zealand.
In knockout rugby, where mistakes have a significantly greater effect on a season, teams tend to revert to type. Under Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus, South Africa showed what their default setting was in 2023. The question remains what will Leinster’s type be when contesting European semi-finals and finals.
Will they still dominate the ball, as they did against Toulouse, only relying on greater efficiency trends which they hope will continue as the season progresses? Or will they turn to their set piece and defence, going fully South African in style? Given they lack the sheer volume of behemoth athletes available to the ‘Boks, the answer will likely fall between the two.
Any side with names such as Gibson-Park, Barrett, Prendergast and James Lowe, not to mention Tyler Bleyendaal as attack coach, is unlikely to abandon their attacking principles. That said, by relying more on forward power, increased efficiency and a better defence, things have undoubtedly changed.
Call it Springbok-ification, becoming a more rounded side, or even “brilliantly boring” as Munster’s Denis Leamy did, as far as Leinster are concerned the sole judgment which matters is whether this tweaked style works during a European final in Cardiff later this year.
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