The debate following Ireland’s stuttering November fortnight has split into two camps: 1960s sitcom fans shout “Don’t panic, Mr Farrell” while more pessimistic folk lament the end of a golden Irish era.
Above and beyond this debate a stark statistical reality has emerged. Disaster has not struck but there are trends which suggest Ireland’s famed attack has lost its zip.
Across the abacus 2024 has not been kind. Ireland’s efficiency, the number of points scored per entry into the opposition 22, has been on the decline since the Six Nations. In a variety of other categories Ireland is ranked mid-table or towards the bottom of the 10 Six Nations and Rugby Championship countries.
Tries (per match): joint 7th
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Metres made: 8th
Metres per run: 9th
Clean breaks: joint 5th
Defenders beaten: joint 5th
It’s not that long ago that Ireland’s attack was considered top of the pops. Where did it all go wrong?
Power outage
A consistent plan to deal with Ireland’s attack has emerged. Though teams have pilfered the ball at key moments, defences have started selectively competing at Irish breakdowns. They are happy to concede quick ball provided they have numbers on their feet to dominate collisions and drive Ireland backwards.
The stats back up the eye test. So far this November Ireland’s quick ball rate is good but their forwards – often the ones seeking go-forward ball in phase play – averaged only 1.55 and 1.32 metres per carry, their third lowest and lowest single game totals of 2024.
From midway through the Six Nations, the quality of the pack’s carries has trended downwards. Standard of opposition is one consideration, given Ireland opened 2024 against a 14-man France and outfits from Italy and Wales.
There are other factors, aside from playing against better Kiwis and Argentinians. It’s difficult to overstate the loss of Dan Sheehan. Before injuring his knee in South Africa the Leinster hooker averaged 3.52m per carry in 2024. During the Six Nations he was the competition’s best hooker (with 10+ carries) at barging over the gainline.
A direct comparison is unfair given he has only had three games, but since becoming the starting hooker Rónan Kelleher has produced an average figure of 1.55m per carry. We know he can be better. Kelleher made 38 metres from just eight carries when replacing the injured Sheehan in Pretoria. He just hasn’t replicated that form.
Nor have other forwards. Caelan Doris’s numbers in South Africa were world class, producing 3.41m per carry. In the last two games this dropped to 1.7m. In statement wins over France and the ‘Boks this year, Joe McCarthy churned out 2.8m per carry. He’s at 0.75m this month.
Individual improvements have to come, but can new faces also help?
Last season, after shifting to flanker, Cormac Izuchukwu averaged more metres per 80 minutes than any other URC forward. We’ll find out if that production translates to international level when the Ulsterman debuts against Fiji.
Are Fiji now capable of beating Ireland for the first time in their history?
Clunky pod play
What else can be done to rectify this lack of yardage? Andy Farrell pointed out that Ireland aren’t at the intensity of the southern hemisphere sides after their Rugby Championship campaign. Two Tests into November that mitigation disappears.
Away from hard yakka, there are some technical points. On TNT Sports commentary last Friday Brian O’Driscoll labelled Ireland’s forward pods, a crucial attacking source in phase play, “clunky”.
When dealing with a power imbalance footwork from the carrier is one way to win a collision. Not the type of footwork which saw Kelleher penalised in the 25th minute against Argentina. Instead of using subtlety close to the defender, McCarthy changed his running line completely, angling into Kelleher’s space and forcing an inevitable obstruction penalty.
Ireland’s pod structure can also be predictable. The set-up of three forwards with a back behind them is regularly in place well before the scrumhalf gets hands on the ball. Defences see it early. Compare this to Argentina who, instead of setting quickly, regularly stacked players behind each other. These runners swung late into their lines just before receiving a pass.
In the second half on the one occasion an Irish carrier did pick his line after the scrumhalf had hands on the ball, Doris blasted through a defender who didn’t see him coming.
While effective early on against Argentina, Ireland’s pod play has also been static and, yes, clunky. Running more disciplined, varied and later angles into contact could be just one way of adding impetus.
Where is the 10?
Beyond an interminable selection debate something interesting is happening at outhalf. By accident or design, Ireland are not using Jack Crowley as often as they used to.
Analyst Sam Larner points to a metric called attacking involvements (AIs), adding up the carries, passes and kicks made by a playmaker. From the Six Nations to the tour of South Africa, Crowley averaged 0.56 AIs per minute of action. In November that dropped to 0.38. From a limited sample outhalves not named Crowley have recently averaged 0.71 AIs per minute.
Are substitutions looking for more influence with the game on the line or is the Munster man failing to consistently stamp his authority on proceedings? Whatever the quantity, Crowley has been on the pitch for all four of Ireland’s tries this November.
There were plenty of instances last week of Crowley not getting the ball when he wanted it. In the first minute Tadhg Beirne passed to Finlay Bealham on his shoulder instead of finding the 10 out the back. Crowley showed his frustration, running without the ball through a gap as if to show the missed opportunity.
In Irish defeats this year Crowley’s average involvements dropped below 0.4 per minute. We may be adding two and two and getting five; Crowley is not the only cog in the Irish system. Yet for all the importance of, say, Jamison Gibson-Park’s passing game, Ireland’s attack will still struggle without an outhalf who is heavily involved with quality touches.
Let Goodman cook
Should we just blame the new guy, Andrew Goodman, Ireland’s attack-minded assistant coach?
Eh, no. Firstly, these worrying numbers include the time before he joined the ticket. Secondly, one of Goodman’s areas of influence, set-piece strike moves, performed well last week.
Take three first-half Irish lineouts inside the Argentinian 22. From the two which secured clean ball, Goodman’s playbook excelled. Ireland scored twice when exploiting a defensive weakness in the seam – the gap between the back of the lineout and the next defender, 10 metres behind the set-piece.
Firstly, once Kelleher saw that Argentina’s number eight was sucked in by a dummy maul he sprinted around the corner to power through the gap left by Joaquin Oviedo in that seam.
Later on Robbie Henshaw’s inside ball to James Lowe exposed the same vulnerability where the forwards are disconnected from the backline. McCarthy scored a phase later.
A third set-piece was scrappy. Ireland were forced outside the 22 but Crowley rescued the situation with a drop goal.
Goodman clearly identified a weakness and, on the two occasions where quality possession was secured inside the 22, Ireland scored. To let their new coach consistently cook Ireland need two things: to improve a kicking game which allows for positive territory, while also solidifying the set-piece. Ireland have yet to hit a 90 per cent successful lineout rate this November.
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