After years of being dominated, Ireland find themselves in the unusual position of being favourites heading into a World Cup quarter-final clash with New Zealand.
Winning five of the last eight meetings between the sides, including a 2-1 series win in New Zealand last year, certainly helps that narrative.
But what have Ireland done so well against what used to be their bogey side? How can you get at the All Blacks? Where do Ireland have an advantage?
By analysing recent statistics and matches, including New Zealand’s defeats to France at this Rugby World Cup and South Africa in a warm-up game in advance of the tournament, we have identified five tactical ploys that can put Ireland in the ascendancy on Saturday.
Keep the All Blacks out of the 22
It sounds simple: keep a good attacking side away from your try line. But of all the teams you don’t want to cross the 22, New Zealand rank top of the list.
These numbers have been inflated by playing poor teams in Uruguay, Italy and Namibia, but New Zealand are the best of all quarter-finalists in terms of attacking efficiency inside the 22.
Per Opta, during the pool stages the All Blacks had the second most red zone entries (14.8 per match), most points per entry (3.88) and the most total points from those entries (61.5). In their defeat to France, no points came from possessions that didn’t enter the 22. In other words, like quite a few teams, they don’t build leads via longer-range shots at goal.
New Zealand have a good place kicker in Richie Mo’unga, but their instinct is instead to move into the 22. Once there, they are lethal, using an array of attacking kicks, offloads or straight up strong forward carries to get over the line.
Play keep-ball
How do Ireland keep them out? One option is simply to dominate the ball themselves. New Zealand had 60 per cent possession in the pools, again the highest of the quarter-finalists.
Dominating the ball allowed the All Blacks to build the best attack of the pool stages. They had the most metres per match (752.5), most line breaks (16) and most defenders beaten (39). Having the fastest ruck speed (3.43 seconds per breakdown), allowed New Zealand to regularly attack disorganised defences.
Ireland can stop this by holding on to the ball. Of the eight remaining teams, the All Blacks made the fewest amount of tackles per match (89.3). They’ve had it their own way, being able to build attack after attack without being tested defensively.
Ireland, as the side with the most breakdown turnovers (5.3 per match), need to win the ball back quickly and keep it. Once they hold on to possession, Ireland will back themselves to break New Zealand down with their well-structured attack.
Sort out the collisions
We constantly hear how important collisions are in rugby. Bizarrely, Ireland rank fifth of the eight quarter-finalists in collision success in the tournament so far (39 per cent) and have had the most negative collisions (eight per match). Playing South Africa didn’t help; 31 dominant tackles from the Springboks skew the numbers somewhat, but to at times be knocked back against other teams yet still win comfortably is an interesting trend.
By contrast, New Zealand had the third best collision dominance (43 per cent) and the second most dominant collisions (36). They also had the best gainline success with their carries (66 per cent) and the most progressive carries per match (88.8).
Ireland have shown ways to win even when sides knock them back. Regardless, in a knockout game against a side so lethal once they get go-forward ball, these numbers cannot be repeated.
Wide defence
New Zealand love to attack out wide. In the pool stages, 14 per cent of their plays travelled 30 metres from the previous ruck. It is an attacking strategy not too dissimilar to Scotland, who travelled the same distance 12 per cent of the time in their defeat to Ireland.
On the scoreboard, Ireland were successful in keeping out a wide attack during last week’s victory. On the ground, Irish defenders were able to come up and pressure the ball carrier while also showing athleticism when moving sideways quickly, jockeying out wide to cover Scotland’s threat.
Such a patient defensive play allowed Scotland to carry the ball for 1,366 metres, but less than half of those (46 per cent) were over the gainline. Put simply, Ireland were happy to let Scotland run sideways.
A similar defensive plan should be effective against the All Blacks and their not dissimilar attacking philosophy.
Target the maul
In recent defeats, cracks appeared in the New Zealand lineout. Not when protecting their own ball in the air – their 98 per cent lineout success rate in the pool stages is the highest among the quarter-finalists – but when defending mauls on the ground.
In a warm-up defeat to South Africa, the All Blacks conceded three tries via the driving maul. Granted, all of those came after lock Scott Barrett was sent off. Tangentially, in four of their six defeats since 2022, a New Zealand player has seen a card. Unsurprisingly, they do not fare well when ill-disciplined.
Yet with the maul, Ireland themselves had success with two scores against a full strength Kiwi pack in the third Test of that 2022 series win.
In the tournament-opening defeat to France, New Zealand’s accuracy in the defensive maul was poor. On three occasions, attempts to haul the drive to ground as soon as it started saw Kiwi players hit the deck, leading to an understaffed counter-shove and easy yards made by France. Ireland’s set-piece should exploit this weakness.
In terms of set-plays, both South Africa and France had recent success exploiting how New Zealand set up defensively at the maul. Scrumhalf Aaron Smith defends in what used to be the hooker’s channel at the front of the lineout. In the below footage, the Springboks exploit this by throwing to the front and threatening to maul, drawing in New Zealand’s forwards at the front of the lineout.
This leaves Smith on his own defending the short side, something for which South African clearly planned. Siya Kolisi peels off to where hooker Malcolm Marx is waiting, creating a mismatch of two powerful forwards vs a diminutive scrumhalf.
Smith is outmatched and Marx scores. France similarly targeted Smith last month with Peato Mauvaka, albeit it did not result in a try. It is easy to imagine Ireland running a similar move with Josh van der Flier breaking off a maul to feed another dynamic hooker in Dan Sheehan.
