Offaly to struggle to keep it going

It still feels a bit strange to be contemplating the latter stages of the Leinster championship with Meath already eliminated…

It still feels a bit strange to be contemplating the latter stages of the Leinster championship with Meath already eliminated. Even though the All-Ireland champions are gone, such is their influence that they do have an oblique bearing on this derby between Offaly and Kildare.

Offaly will have been given an invaluable lift in terms of esteem and confidence since their win over Meath and will carry that new surge and drive with them into tomorrow's game. The work rate they sustained throughout that game surprised a lot of people, not least the Meath players, as did their success in neutralising key opponents.

But that blitzkrieg element is gone for Offaly now. Their mental approach will be different tomorrow; they won't take the field as firm underdogs, and their opponents will be extremely wary. Kildare also benefited from the excellent run Louth gave them, and while they again demonstrated their shocking capacity for poor shooting, they had fitness, strength and guile enough down the stretch. So both teams come into this semi-final with worthwhile hours behind them.

The key to this tussle lies in the teams' styles. Kildare have remained faithful to the short passing game and attack with abandon from the half-back line. Occasionally, they turn into cul-de-sacs when they overdo it, but such is the speed with which they transfer the ball that they are difficult to stop. I often look at Kildare and wonder what they wouldn't do for a real target man inside. Kildare's full forward line is their Achilles' heel. Karl O'Dwyer, their most reliable shooting forward, often has to forage too deep for ball and his colleagues, Fennin and Gravin, will struggle against the Offaly duo of Brady and Daly.

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For all the possession Kildare generate through their defensive prowess and midfield potency, they more often than not fail miserably in attempting to realise it on the scoreboard. The majority of their scores against Louth were accumulated through frees and the goal which ushered them through came from a penalty.

So often we have seen them sweep up field in glorious, devastating bursts only for the final kick to betray them. It is a failing which does not appear to be open to remedy. So once more, they will be seeking to engineer their scores from other sources.

The heart of this team rests within that attack-conscious half-back trio of John Finn, Glen Ryan and Anthony Rainbow. While dutiful and attentive in their defensive duties, the trio do relish the opportunity to venture forward. They all contributed significantly to Kildare's more accomplished attacking moves against Louth. John Finn, of course, was the player who was up-ended for the penalty, the conclusion to a move initiated by Glen Ryan. Rainbow hit a point from play.

They should prove too mobile for the Offaly half-forward trio: in essence, the game will be swayed by whoever takes control of this line.

Moving Martin Lynch to midfield seems astute on the face of it - he is mobile and creative enough - but it remains to be seen if he has the requisite battling qualities to keep company with Ronan Mooney and James Grennan, who eclipsed Meath's powerful unit of McDermott and Crawford. But I do expect Dermot Earley to put his marvellous fielding attributes to use in this area as well, helping to swing possession Kildare's way.

I think that Pauric Nolan will once again issue Finbarr Cullen with a licence to roam forward. I know from my time with him on the Compromise Rules tour that Finbarr is exceptionally composed on the ball and a reliable score kicker. He always takes the right options.

Now, if Kildare's weakest component is their inside line, then it is Offaly's core asset. Vinny Claffey assured us that he still has the true attacking instincts - a sharp eye, ability to make space, strength enough to win ball - and he has an able comrade in Roy Malone. Although the absence of Brian Lacey is particularly damaging to Kildare given Claffey's impressive artillery, I think the Offaly man will be a marked man. It will be fascinating to see how his replacement, Ken Doyle, fares in this regard. It is imperative that Roy Malone and Killian Burns support him more consistently, and Claffey would also benefit from considerably more link play from the half forwards, as opposed to having to forage for long, deep ball.

So these are the lines where the truth will out, and over the 70 minutes Kildare's pace and their experience will be the defining factor. You can be guaranteed that they will again notch up an astonishing quota of wides, it just seems to be a flaw they have to live with. Because of that, it will probably be a fairly close game.

Glen Ryan is the player that Offaly will identify as the one to shut down. His incisive runs do a lot of damage and he is a great rallying force. Mel Keeneghan will have a tough day trying to keep him leashed and I expect to see some clashes whenever Ryan attempts to burst through the sizeable midfield duo of Mooney and Grennan.

The midfield shake-up will be interesting: Willie McCreery showed some fine form against Louth, but the Offaly duo are strong.

Offaly could win this if they put the shackles on the Kildare half-back line. But the belief here is that while they may contain them periodically, they won't be able to sustain their efforts in the way that enabled them to overcome Meath. Offaly will work and grind and it will probably be a very close, physical game. But Kildare have that edge and the experience accumulated through their run of two summers ago. So I expect them to advance.

(In an interview with Keith Duggan)