No surprises in predictable 30

A few quibbles with the timing, unexpectedly brought forward to Saturday evening, maybe even a few quibbles about some of the selections, but all in all the Irish management's 30-man squad for the World Cup was pretty predictable. Heck, some of us journalists even got it right.

Not surprisingly, fears over Paul Wallace's injury-prone nature (he was helped off after sustaining a haematoma during the Argentinian game which will sideline him for about 10 days) and the additional demands that could thus be placed on Peter Clohessy, meant that the management opted for five props. It makes sense, and is a route others, England amongst them, might go down.

Hence the quartet to miss out from the preliminary squad are Rob Henderson, Denis Hickie, Ronan O'Gara and Conor McGuinness. Had there not been a need for a fifth forward, had there been a 31st player, then Henderson would probably have made it which, like being on the list of standbys along with the other three to miss the cut, will be no consolation. As it is, since Bill McLaren intoned about the "Buffalo on Stampede" at Murrayfield, Hender son's chances have been limited to one half against Italy, before he broke his nose, a summer spent getting himself into the shape of his life, and then last Tuesday's match for a hapless Leinster.

Warren Gatland conceded that this was the most difficult decision in the most difficult aspect of the his job. "Particularly when you know a player has worked so hard and particularly also when he's such a good squad member," he said.

"Rob Henderson in your 22 or in your touring party is just such a positive member. He's delightful to take on tour. He works well with the other players, he gets on with everybody, he encourages everybody and he's a good guy to have in the squad.

"In the end, Jonathan Bell's versatility was a factor in leaving Rob out, and the fact that Mike Mullins does seem to have an ability to unload in the tackle. But I think if there was an injury in that position over the next month or so, or in the World Cup, Rob Henderson would be one of the first players we would look to bring in."

"Denis Hickie on the wing was another difficult decision," admitted manager Donal Lenihan. "It was a good situation to be in, albeit I feel sorry for the players we've left behind. Denis had worked extremely hard over the summer."

McGuinness misses out, ironically after giving real signs of a return to form for Connacht against Ireland last week before being unhelpfully substituted. Perhaps his goose had been cooked already, and here it's worth noting that for all Gatland's renowned loyalty, it wasn't blind.

"In Conor's situation, I think he probably played on an injury last year and continued to play on an injury and he wasn't 100 per cent all the time," said Gatland. "His form wasn't the best and I understand he's still not able to train fully in all sessions. I think it's just a priority for him to get his body right."

Gatland added: "Thinking back on last season, rather than playing for St Mary's he might have been better off just pulling the plug on St Mary's and getting himself right, and looking at the long-term goal of the World Cup. That's possibly what's cost him a little bit."

The selection of this squad is the culmination of 18 months' work, during which time an awful lot of holes have been filled and other positions added to. The changes have been subtle rather than drastic - only 14 of Gatland's first 22-man squad which did duty in Paris 17 months ago remain. Compared to, say, the original 34-man squad for South Africa in the summer of last year, only 18 of that party will go to the World Cup. It's also significant to note that whereas 15 of that squad were English-based at the time, only eight of this one are.

"One of the most difficult things about my reign was that it was only until the World Cup, even though it included the Six Nations afterwards," said Gatland. "But really it was for the World Cup and trying to prepare the team for that. Everything along the way was a stepping stone with the whole focus on the World Cup." "With the small playing base that we have in Ireland it's something that we need to think about for the future, that we probably should be looking to go from World Cup to World Cup in terms of the players that we select and trying to stick with them.

"So that when the next World Cup comes around we've got an experienced team that have a lot of Test matches under their belt, and experience in terms of age and games. That's just a policy that just needs to be introduced. But I'm really looking forward to the World Cup and these players have worked really hard, and they've continued to work hard and I think they'll go very well."