A THRILLER would be fitting. Either way, it’s the point of no return for the Lions today when they step into the Bull’s den that is the Loftus Versfeld Stadium, one-nil down with the prospect of losing the series or keeping it alive. It’s not ideal, but it should concentrate the minds.

Such is the nature of modern rugby that it is liable to be a very different game from last week. The Springboks are unlikely to destroy the Lions scrum for another return of six points – not to mention the psychological damage it did in the first Test. Nor are they likely to march downfield 60 metres with three mauls for a try. That’s why the Lions have picked Simon Shaw in one of three changes to their tight five.

Likewise, it will be a surprise if the potent Jamie Roberts-Brian O’Driscoll midfield will carve the Springboks defence to shreds as it did last Saturday in a manner that hasn’t been seen in years. That’s primarily why Schalk Burger is playing after a seven-week absence, if only for 50 minutes or so, and perhaps to target Roberts.

A week’s video analysis in both camps will limit the chances of a repeat viewing. That’s the beauty of sport.

With the first Test as a reference point, the Lions cannot afford to allow the Springboks to build an early lead. They have been the best front-runners in the world for years. That is how they beat Argentina and England in the World Cup.

The Boks can then send the ball long through the excellent kicking of scrumhalf Fourie du Preez and outhalf Ruan Pienaar, and the somewhat less reliable boot of fullback Frans Steyn, and soak up the pressure with the best defence in the world and the arch interceptor of wing Bryan Habana.

Last week, they threw in a couple of power plays early each half, and kicked the penalties earned by their scrum. Warren Gatland, the Lions’ assistant/forwards coach, pointed out that the Boks only reached four phases once in the game, and the ball only reached outside centre Adi Jacobs once all afternoon. He claimed “the Lions played all the rugby”.

But he accepted the Lions failed to force the Boks to play more.

“It’s really important that we start well, we just can’t afford to go 10 or 13 points behind,” said Gatland. This is also presumably why Shaw has been preferred from the start, to stiffen the defensive maul and scrum, even if only for the first 40 or 50 minutes.

“You’re giving them that luxury of controlling the game, and they’re good at doing that. Get an early lead, kicking, defending well. So it’s important that we’re in the game.

“That’s why we’ve got to scrummage well, our lineout has got to be effective, we’ve got to stop their driving maul and keep our discipline. No soft three points.”

Gatland agreed with Graham Rowntree’s view that Bryce Lawrence refereed the scrums fairly, though he expressed frustration overall with the officials in the first game. “You just want to feel that you’re getting some 50-50 calls from the officials. I didn’t feel we got any 50-50 calls,” said Gatland.

He added that videos showed Matthew Rees had not connected with his fist for the Boks’ important relieving penalty late on.

“Paul O’Connell was penalised once for being off his feet and he was clearly on his feet. I just wonder in that last 10 minutes or so, when we were dominating and they were giving away five or six penalties, if that had been on the other foot you tell me that he wouldn’t have stopped the game and called the captain over and said: ‘hey, that’s five or six penalties, the next one is going to be yellow’?”

Today’s referee is, alas, likely to be equally influential. At a time when options are few, the insistence in both camps on neutral referees means the relatively inexperienced Christophe Berdos takes charge today without ever having done a Tri-Nations game.

The Lions may have to make more use of their bench regardless of whether they’re behind or have to rectify something on the pitch because of the altitude factor.

“I don’t think that’s going to be an issue,” said Gatland. “Physically we’re in great shape, we’re not worried about the altitude.

“But that’s probably why they’ve gone for a 5-2 split. I think they’re a little bit worried about their own conditioning, particularly with Burger, they don’t expect him to play 80 minutes obviously. But we feel we’ve got a good bench who can come on and make an impact as well, which is good.”

The Lions’ selection may be reactive but it looks beefier and better balanced, and better able to cope with whatever the Boks might throw at them initially. And after last Saturday’s 14-0 salvo in the last 12 minutes, if they are within a score then the Lions will believe they can pull through. Strong second halves have been a feature of their performances.

It’s the Wasps-Welsh way, patiently going through multiple phases before locating the gaps, interspersed with a clever catalogue of backline moves which perhaps hasn’t been exhausted yet.

With another game under their belts the Boks ought to be even more efficient and ambitious than last week. Their best players are Bulls’ players. They’re at home. Yet they’re not quite convincing, and you sense the Lions have a bigger performance in them.

BETTING(Paddy Power): 2/7 South Africa, 22/1 Draw, 12/5 Lions. Handicap odds: 10/11 South Africa (-9pts), 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Lions (+9pts).

Forecast: South Africa to win.